Wake Forest Scouting

Nov 16, 2016, 8:21 PM

It's that time of the week again. I was pretty close last week to getting our scores right per quarter, but obviously no one saw the defense laying the egg they did. That was last week, and this is this week. Without further ado: (NOTE: I'm not including TOs in my keys this week, those are given, I'm looking to give some keys and some info you may not hear about pre-game in other places)

KEYS

Offense

1) Balance

-you know how you help your QB and defense, even early in the game? Offensive Balance. Last week, Pitt put 9 in the box on a lot of plays, so it made sense to switch it up to the passing game (which I called a lot of screens in last week's scouting report). This week, even though Wake's defense is very solid (just ask Louisville and FSU, we'll get there), they are giving up 152 yards a game on the ground and 229.4 yards through the air. What does that mean? Teams are balanced against them. It goes without saying but if we are balanced they are not, that's the key. Which leads to....

2) Reduce the effectiveness of #53, #8, and #3 on Wake's Defense

-Wake's defense is by far the best part of their team, and it centers around these 3 players. Duke Ejofor (#53), Marquel Lee (#8), and Jessie Bates (#3) are outstanding players. Why do I say that? watch the tape. These guys have played FSU and Louisville ON THE ROAD and were in position to win those games in the 4th quarters. A big part of why is because of these 3. #53 has 9 sacks on the season and 14 TFLs. #8 has 6 sacks and 15 TFLs. Wake has 32 sacks on the season (only 3 behind our season total), and that's AFTER playing Louisville and FSU on the road. Louisville didn't even have a first down until 30 seconds left in the 1st quarter this past weekend. Cannot over look this defense, and these 3 are key reasons why. #3 has 5 interceptions on the season, and has returned TWO of those for TDs. I shouldn't have to emphasize this anymore.

DEFENSE

1) Stop the Run

-This again goes without saying but it is even more important this week. Wake is 6-4 on the season, and when they rush for at least 180 yards in a game they are 5-0. Less than 180? 1-4 with the only win against Tulane to start the season (79 yards). For reference, NC state held them to 69 yards, FSU 68 yards, Army 123 yards, Louisville 73 yards. Sometimes the games can be this simple, and this week it really is, but simple does not mean easy. Their Passing game only has 5 TDs on the season, so their best chance to score points is running the ball and INT returns (2 INT returns for TDs on the year vs 5 TD passes, interesting stat)

2) Shovel Option, RB Wheel Route, RB Swing route (against a blitz up the middle), TE out route in the direction of the pre-snap motion.....

-Wake does not have explosive play makers at WR so they utilize their tight ends to help offset that deficiency. They also love to throw the RB swing (Louisville got torched a lot in the 1st half from this exact play) route. The combination of the Shovel option and the RB swing route is dangerous, because even if you drop the DEs and overload the middle to stop the Shovel, they'll throw it outside to the RB where no one but the DE (and hopefully a LB if they are actually doing their job) against the RB who is already running full speed when he catches the ball. Coach V is going to have to be careful with his blitz packages if we cannot get pressure from just the D line. Honestly, blitzing corners is NOT a good idea either, because if they call a Wheel route against that blitz, it leaves a LB in coverage on a RB, and more often than not it's Boulware in coverage (we all knew that wasn't his forte BEFORE the game last weekend). I fully expect Wake to isolate him in coverage and attack him. Louisville blitzed up the middle a lot during the 1st half and got burned 90% of the time because of the RB swing route (they anticipated the blitzes very well which means they did their homework).

SPECIAL TEAMS

1) If they kick FGs, make them kick from 45+ yards.

-17/21 on the season, 12/13 under 40 yards, but 5/8 from 40-49 yards, season long make of 46 with season long attempt of 48. He's a VERY accurate kicker under 40 yards, but make them kick longer FGs and we have the advantage. Why? not just because it's harder to kick longer FGs but because the longer the kick, the lower the ball is off the kicker's foot. Enter Big Dex and Wilkins blocking kicks if that happens.

2) Experiment with NOT kicking all kickoffs into the Endzone

-wait, what? Seriously? Why?! I'll tell you why. They are averaging less than 20 yards a kickoff return and the majority of their kick returns are 10-15 yards. Why give them the ball at the 25 if we can make them start further back? Yes, we increase the chance of a breakdown and a long return, but Wake is BAD at returning kicks, so I think it's a low enough risk to try. Wake has only scored 22 TDs all season (5 through the air), so why make them go 75 yards when we could make them go at least 80 yards consistently?

PREDICTION

-I've been adding a prediction to these since the Syracuse and Pitt games, and both games I've been almost spot on on our point total but been off on the opponent (49-24 I said against Syracuse when it was actually 54-0, 52-20 for the pitt game and well know how that went, but I said 14 1st qt, 28 2nd qt, 45 3rd qt, and 52 4th qt, so I was pretty close).

1st Quarter

I think we will see a heavy dose of gallman running the ball with some screens mixed in for the 1st quarter. 14-6 end of 1st quarter score (Wake will get in the red zone due to 1 turnover (fumble recovery) and have 1 good drive but twice but will have to settle for FGs)

2nd Quarter

Wake will get their only TD of the game by hitting on a pass that goes to the TE after coming in motion to the strong side and will catch Coach V in a corner blitz and Boulware will be in perfect position but not make the play. Unfortunately for wake, our running game will draw their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, and that's when Deshaun goes wild to Williams, Cain, and Mr. White Lightning himself. 31-13 Halftime lead.

3rd Quarter

Coach V makes adjustments to play more zone and make wake be perfect to be able to score instead of giving them one on one opportunities. Wake will make mistakes when having to go the length of the field. They will adjust to our run first game plan but will not have the horses to consistently stop us for 3 straight plays. 41-13 end of 3rd quarter.

4th Quarter

The running game will be featured, Nick and Kelly will both get snaps after the clock goes below 10 mins left in the 4th quarter. 44-13 Final Score.

Scouting Report

• 6-4 Overall, 3-3 Conference
o Wins against Tulane (7-3), @ Duke (24-14), Delaware (38-21), @ Indiana (33-28), Syracuse (28-9), Virginia (27-20
o Losses against @ NC State (33-16), @ FSU (17-6), Army (21-13), @ Louisville (44-12)
• Offense (per game)
o Scoring
? 20.4 points
o 1st Downs
? 18
o Total Offense
? 319.7 yards
? 69 plays
o Rushing
? 154.9 yards
? 3.7 yards/rush
? 42 rushing attempts
? 1.4 TDs
o Passing
? 164.8 yards
? 6 yards/pass attempt
? 0.5 TDs/game
? 27 passing attempts
o Turnovers (giveaways)
? 11 Fumbles (5 lost) on the season
? 11 Interceptions
? 1.6 per game
o 3rd Downs
? 61/160 on the season
• 38%
o Penalties
? 4.6/35.4 yards
o Sacks given up
? 28 on the season
• Defense (per game)
o Points given up
? 21 points
o 1st Downs
? 20
o Total Defense
? 381.8 yards
? 69 plays
o Rushing
? 152.4 yards
? 4 yards/rush
? 38 rushes
? 1.5 TDs
o Passing
? 229.4 yards
? 7.3 yards/attempt
? 1.2 TDs
? 31 attempts
o Turnovers (Takeaways)
? 17 Fumbles (12 recovered) on the season
? 9 Interceptions on the season
o 3rd Downs
? 50/138 on the season
• 36%
o Sacks
? 32 on the season
• 3.2 per game
• Key Special Teams Notes
o FGs 17-21
? 12/13 under 40 yards
? 5-8 40-49 yards (long of 46 made, has attempted 48 once)
? has not attempted a kick of 50+ yards this season
? But was 4/4 against Louisville
o Average 5 punts a game
o 49 kickoffs, 27 Touchbacks
• Misc Notes
o Only 22 TDs scored in their 10 games
o 28/31 scoring in the red zone (90%) but only 15 of those are touchdowns (48%)
o Outscored by all opponents except 2nd Quarter (91-30 they outscore opponents)
o Jessie Bates (#3) is a gamer, has 5 Picks on the season, 2 returned for touchdowns
o Wakes longest kickoff return is 30 yards (the next longest is 28 yards)
? Average yards per return is under 20
o Wolford (#10) is a tough kid. He was banged up in the Louisville game, took some big shots in the FSU game and just kept playing. He’s not the most gifted athlete but he is a play maker at the QB position.
o Duke Ejofor (#53) and Marquel Lee (#8) are some great defensive players. Respectively, 14 and 15 TFLs, 9 and 6 sacks on the season.
o Wake’s offensive success is highly reliant on the running game. When they’ve rushed for 180+ yards this season, they have won. Games less than that? They have lost (except the opener against Tulane, 34 carries for 79 yards but won ugly 7-3). Reference point is 49 carries for 73 yards against Louisville, 32 carries for 68 yards against FSU.
o Wake had 5 sacks against Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, and Duke. They are 3-1 in those games.

References

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/wake/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2016-17/stats/season_stats.pdf

http://www.clemsontigers.com/fls/28500/pdf/football/2016-17/Stats.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=28500&DB_OEM_ID=28500

Wake Vs Louisville Game

https://youtu.be/YSPXK8HSsYo

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Ball control came into effect because of the option by Army. What really hurt Wake were the 6 completions for 145 yards and 1 TD. Army only attempted 9 passes, and did what the typical option offense does, run the ball and throw it only when they feel they can playaction and receivers can get behind the secondary.

I don't think it's smart for us to play the ball control scheme unless our defense struggles. If for some reason we are losing in the 2nd half and are able to run the ball, I think it'd be a legit option to help the defense. I'm a bigger fan of scoring a ton early and then going into that type of offense style (not the option but ball control)after the halfway point in the 3rd quarter. That would be ideal.

Wake Forest Scouting

Re: Wake Forest Scouting

Gracias***

I'll update you as soon as I get back from Winston Salem....

Yea. I don't feel good about this game at all

Re: Yea. I don't feel good about this game at all

After throwing 70 passes last week, I'd love to see us bust

Could've saved yourself some time by calling Petrino...

Well...

Apoarently Army beat them with a solid running game

Re: Apoarently Army beat them with a solid running game

Re: Wake Forest Scouting

Re: Wake Forest Scouting

Friday Night Bump***

Gallman early, like I said! :-)***

Re: Wake Forest Scouting

31-13 @ half i said, 28-10 is same point differential***

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