Orange Phenom [14752]
TigerPulse: 100%
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CFP top 7 - who's beating Winners/Losers and conclusions...
Nov 1, 2016, 11:28 PM
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In my previous posts on AP Top 5 and who is beating winners/losers ( http://www.tigernet.com/forums/message.jspa?messageID=20353047#20353047 ) I was correct in all but the Washington ranking - did not see that a 1 loss A&M would be ranked above them.
In keeping with this trend here are the facts using the CFP Committee rankings:
Alabama is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 39-27
Clemson is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 40-22
Michigan is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 32-33
Texas A&M is 7-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 30-26
Washington is 8-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 27-38
Ohio State is 7-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 29-27
Louisville is 7-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 23-33
A further breakdown shows that:
Alabama has beaten 6 teams with winning records and 2 teams with losing records
Clemson has beaten 5 teams with winning records, 2 team with an even record, and 1 team with a losing record
Michigan has beaten 3 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 4 teams with losing records
Texas A&M has beaten 4 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 2 teams with losing records
Washington has beaten 2 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 5 teams with losing records
Ohio State has beaten 3 teams with winning records, 2 teams with even records, and 2 teams with losing records
Louisville has beaten 1 team with a winning record, 2 teams with even records, and 4 teams with losing records
Alabama has 1 home ranked win (#4 Texas A&M)
Clemson has 1 home ranked win (#7 Louisville) and 2 road ranked wins (#9 Auburn, #22 Florida State)
Michigan has 3 home ranked wins (#15 Colorado, #12 Penn State, #8 Wisconsin)
Texas A&M has 1 road ranked win (#9 Auburn)
Washington has 1 road ranked win (#16 Utah)
Ohio State has 2 road ranked wins (#14 Oklahoma, #8 Wisconsin)
Louisville has 1 home ranked win (#22 Florida State)
Conclusions: As I suspected, the CFP Playoff committee values beating winning teams, quality ranked wins, and strength of schedule above most other factors right now. I had predicted that Louisville would be ranked 6 or 7 behind A&M and/or Ohio State and that is what happened. What I missed to take into account is that Washington's schedule was so weak that it would cause a 1 loss A&M team to jump them to take the #4 ranking. Comparing the data of A&M and Washington does indicate that A&M, even with one loss, has faced much tougher competition with more wins against winning teams than undefeated Washington. If I were on the committee, I may would still have given Washington the nod, but can understand the CFP's decision based on the data.
Overall, it is rather gratifying to see that the CFP Committee goes beyond the "eye test" and really gives credit for beating winning teams. What seems to be a fact now is that short of a complete implosion in the top 6, Louisville (bless their whining hearts) is screwed because they have no more quality wins in which to climb up the rankings. In fact, Louisville's quality of wins will probably get worse as the season progresses...
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