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YOUR BALANCE
Front Page Story: Clemson-Florida St. prediction
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Front Page Story: Clemson-Florida St. prediction


Oct 18, 2013, 11:09 AM

 
Clemson-Florida St. prediction

National Championship hopes. Atlantic Division title. Top 5 rankings. There is a whole lot on the line Saturday. Who will win? Full Story »


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I'm not sure a guy who calls himself Butt-head...


Oct 18, 2013, 11:14 AM

Is taking the football board seriously.

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Maybe not, but he's beating three other TNet writers...***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:19 AM



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Okay, Butt-head...


Oct 18, 2013, 11:20 AM

:)

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So you'd think little of my 42-23 prediction?


Oct 18, 2013, 11:21 AM [ in reply to I'm not sure a guy who calls himself Butt-head... ]

I predicted 3 FGs from FSU's kicker.

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I went down that road before the season...


Oct 18, 2013, 6:47 PM

started, but... not sure I'll say that again.
#21

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i RA every pigskin prophet for starting the funny...


Oct 18, 2013, 11:22 AM [ in reply to I'm not sure a guy who calls himself Butt-head... ]

it's the right thing to do.

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Good job. All business all day.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:23 AM



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null


i'm one person, i can only do so much.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:24 AM



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I'm doing my part as well. No more LOLs or LMAOs


Oct 18, 2013, 11:25 AM

tolerated.

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null


i hope your good works don't go unnoticed.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:26 AM



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Franc, your Tigah Boord pic makes me laugh every time!


Oct 18, 2013, 12:37 PM [ in reply to I'm not sure a guy who calls himself Butt-head... ]

Love it!

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"All those 'Fire Brownell' guys can kiss it." -Joseph Girard III

"Everybody needs to know that Coach Brownell is arguably the best coach to come through Clemson." -PJ Hall


Go Tigers! Beat the Criminoles!***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:27 AM



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"IDIOT POSTER OF THE MONTH SO FAR...GWP-- You have won IPM Award for your failure to completely comprehend a clear post & then choose to attack someone who points out your ignorance. While you are not yet in the same No Class Catagory as deRoberts, ClemTiger117 & Tigerdug23, you are getting closer to the Sewer Dwellers." - coachmac


thanks from bringing it back in... go tigers!***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:27 AM



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I couldn't be more proud right now.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:29 AM



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null


i think we're finally hanging out with the right crowd...***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:30 AM



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I hope Crump notices the immediate dividends.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:31 AM



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null


look at you being unselfish again.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:34 AM



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I bet Crump's the one giving us points.***


Oct 18, 2013, 11:41 AM



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null


4th matchup in ACC history of top 5 teams, road team has


Oct 18, 2013, 12:23 PM

won the previous three.

Gotta break that streak!

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Nice write-up. Link to an excellent detailed analysis here.


Oct 18, 2013, 1:26 PM

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2013/10/18/4843162/2013-florida-state-clemson-game-preview

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Special Teams


Oct 18, 2013, 1:42 PM

I agree with everything other than I wouldn't say we have "explosive kick returners".

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Explosively... average?


Oct 18, 2013, 3:11 PM

I'll settle for steady hands, though. Our offense more than makes up for shorter returns.

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FSU's recruited-talent gap is increasing, which is worrisome


Oct 18, 2013, 1:51 PM

In recent years the recruited talent-level in the 2-deep between FSU & Clemson was pretty similar, (see links below) with FSU having only a slight, but increasing edge (per the recruiting services). The worrisome thing this year is that FSU's talent level on the 2-deep is broadly distributed and has really jumped, from being about even a few years ago, to being about a 0.25 stars advantage last year to being a 0.5 star advantage this year. A half-star advantage is roughly what Clemson holds over a team like NCSU.

Of course the recruiting rankings aren't perfect indicators, and other factors like player development, game planning, preparation, home field advantage and the bounce of the ball can be factors. But more often than not, if a team has a half-star talent-advantage, that portends a win for similarly well-coached team (which I think is the case here). So I'm less optimistic about this game than the T-Net forecasters. I think the team and the crowd need to bring their A-game, the front-4 has to pressure Winston, and FSU has to play less than their A-game for Clemson to pull this one out. Go Tigers!

Two-deep recruited talent tables for Clemson & FSU.
2013:
http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2013/10/16/4836800/2013-florida-state-clemson-depth-chart-analysis

2012: http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2012/9/20/3355392/clemson-florida-state-2012-depth-chart-comparison

2011: http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2011/9/21/2438964/clemson-vs-florida-state-depth-chart-talent-analysis

2010: http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2011/5/17/2170690/two-deep-recruiting-comparison-clemson-vs-florida-state-2010

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did fsu wear their +1 star jerseys last year in raleigh?***


Oct 18, 2013, 1:59 PM



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Just like CU wore +1 jerseys in 2010 (6-7) & in Raleigh 2011


Oct 18, 2013, 3:10 PM

As I wrote, there are many factors.

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awesome, they're going to play the game after all...***


Oct 18, 2013, 3:35 PM



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Yep. Even though people write articles or post comments.***


Oct 18, 2013, 9:37 PM



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amazing. so, everything else being equal, the more talented


Oct 18, 2013, 9:47 PM

talent wins more times than they don't.

why not post the team that scores more points wins more times than they don't?

it's on the same limb.

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I posted the 2-deep data as an FYI. YOU mocked the value!


Oct 20, 2013, 1:48 AM

I just posted the data for people who are interested in intelligent football discussion, not for knee-jerk pumpers. Gee, I guess that data that I posted actually did portend a win by FSU, just like I said. But I'm sure you dismissed the data and predicted a Clemson win, right?

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Re: FSU's recruited-talent gap is increasing, which is worrisome


Oct 18, 2013, 2:05 PM [ in reply to FSU's recruited-talent gap is increasing, which is worrisome ]

Stars really don't matter outside of recruiting. You don't win football games based on that. Florida State has out-recruited us every year for 20 years and it's "their year" every season but they have very little to show for it over the last 8-10 years. Jimbo does less with more better than anyone else. Perennial top 5 recruiting classes and numerous times they were National Title favorites over the years. I'm not worried but I'm not guaranteeing a win by any means. I think our coaches will be ready and the players will play their game and play well.

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No. Stars do matter and FSU didn't always out-recruit us.


Oct 18, 2013, 3:03 PM

Back in the Bowden era, FSU handily out-recruited us and they owned us. Then in more recent years the talent gap narrowed and the balance of power became roughly even. Now the gap is increasing and that's worrisome.

Not sure how you can say Jimbo Fischer does less with more than ANYONE else. (Bobby Bowden, Tommy Bowden, Mack Brown, Dabo's 6-7 season in 2010?) In his 3 years as head coach, Fischer is 36-10 with 2 Atlantic titles and one ACC title.

Here are links to 6 articles providing statistical analyses that recruiting star-rankings do matter.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Star-Power-Recruiting-gurus-All-American-track?urn=ncaaf-311830

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Star-Power-Recruiting-gurus-track-record-at-th?urn=ncaaf-312394

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Star-Power-Judging-the-recruiting-rankings-gam?urn=ncaaf-312875

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Star-Power-The-nation-s-most-overachieving-team?urn=ncaaf-313921

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Star-Power-The-nation-s-most-underachieving-tea?urn=ncaaf-314624

http://www.athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-stars

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You used 2 coaches who aren't in football to make your point


Oct 18, 2013, 6:59 PM

And one who's on his way out. Thank you for playing, we have some nice consolation prizes for you.

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"Dabo crushed my soul." --- Classof09


... and I used 2 that ARE still in coaching. So what?


Oct 20, 2013, 4:24 PM

I listed the 2 that aren't still in coaching as a historical frame of reference for the FSU rivalry. Is that against the rules? You should have informed me of your arbitrary rules before I posted so that I could have laughed at them then too.

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Oh no, FSU has more fake sports points than us


Oct 18, 2013, 3:12 PM [ in reply to FSU's recruited-talent gap is increasing, which is worrisome ]

I have a hard time caring. Pointing out that we have a half star advantage over NC State should show you how little those ratings mean. We're vastly superior to NC State.

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Exactly. A 1/2-star gap is significant as it was over NCSU.***


Oct 18, 2013, 3:36 PM



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I'm with Butt Head***


Oct 18, 2013, 6:56 PM



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"Dabo crushed my soul." --- Classof09


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