Inside the matchup: Clemson-South Carolina projections |
South Carolina is 8-3.
Ranked 24th nationally. Hosting a rival. At night. And a two-touchdown underdog. That rival being the No. 3 reigning national champions certainly plays a role, as well as last year's 56-7 result, but there’s a bit of an odd feel to the projections, given the records. Football Study Hall likes the Tigers by double-digits, but under the number with a 30-20 win – giving the Gamecocks a 26 percent chance at pulling the upset. ESPN’s Football Power Index is heavier in Clemson’s favor, with an 84.6 projection, and TeamRankings.com goes further with an 88.7 projection. South Carolina arrived at 8-3 with a top-15 turnover margin, solid scoring defense (21st, 19.6) and few penalties (top-10 in penalties and penalty yards). Because of an overall mediocre efficiency in all three phases, Football Study Hall measures losing adjusted scoring margins in two of their wins (-7.3 versus NC State, a 35-28 neutral site win; -1.7 versus Vanderbilt, a 34-27 home win) and calls a couple losses closer than they should’ve been (24-17 loss at Texas A&M, a -19.1 adjusted scoring margin; 24-10 loss at Georgia, a -30.2 adjusted scoring margin). For reference, Clemson has one negative adjusted scoring margin – and not the one you would think, with a -0.7 adjusted score in the 38-31 NC State win (+0.3 at Syracuse). - Advanced metrics profile Clemson ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 11. Defense – 2. Special teams – 92. Overall – 4. Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 35. Defense – 4. Special teams – 124. Success rate* (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 10 (47.3). Defense – 6 (32.7). South Carolina ESPN efficiency rank:Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 77. Defense – 37. Special teams – 95. Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 53 (43.2). Defense – 66 (41.3). - Last week, we looked at the profile of Clemson football through matchups in 10 games with FBS opponents. They took to the air last Saturday to iron out some issues in the deep passing game. Clemson’s strength in the run game meets the best aspect of South Carolina’s defense so far, where they rank No. 29 in rushing defense efficiency. That’s overall, however, and they’ve struggled on money downs in stopping teams – 126th in power success rate** (80.8; the Tigers rank 58th in offensive power success rate, 69.6). The field is more flipped in Clemson’s direction when its defense meets Jake Bentley and the South Carolina offense: a No. 4-rated Tiger ‘D’ taking on an offense that’s 77th in the nation Healthy on the O-line after struggles there all season, the Gamecocks total efficiency can be taken with a grain of salt at this point – posting a 71st percentile performance against Florida and 83rd against Wofford last time out. This is the same group that operated in the 15th percentile or worse in three games prior this season (at Texas A&M, 14; at Tennessee, 15; at Georgia, 6). Most teams struggle when put behind the chains, but that down-and-distance could determine just how close this game is Saturday night. In passing downs*** defense, Clemson is No. 1 both in overall efficiency and success rate (20.8) versus an offense that’s No. 111 in efficiency and No. 96 in success rate (28.1). The Gamecocks have struggled mightily on third down (103rd), going against the fifth-best defense, and the matchup isn’t much better on the other side of the ball, with Clemson’s No. 7 third-down offense against a 70th-best defense. Fast starts haven’t been South Carolina's thing either – 103rd in first-quarter efficiency – and neither has the finish (74th in the fourth quarter). While ranked a bit higher on special teams than Clemson, they are one of the few teams worse on field goal value, by one spot (111th v. 110th). South Carolina’s strength is in kick return success rate (22nd) against a Clemson kickoff group that sits inside top-60 (55th). * Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. **Percentage of runs that achieve a first down or touchdown with two or less yards to go on third/fourth down. *** Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs. S&P+ is a Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders metric that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. (Unless otherwise noted, advanced stat figures are from Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders)
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