Inside the matchup: Clemson-Alabama projections |
The third edition of Clemson-Alabama in the College Football Playoff promises a different look than the previous two.
The Deshaun Watson-led Tigers ran up over 500 offensive yards – over 400-plus in the passing game alone – in each installment so far. This season, Clemson has topped the 500-yard mark only once versus a Power 5 team (613 at Louisville), while Alabama has surrendered only 400-plus yards once as well (408, in a 26-14 loss at Auburn). Taking a lead to the last second last year, Alabama rushed for 221 yards to maximize its 66 plays to Clemson’s 99. The Crimson Tide average 265 rushing yards per game now, but the Tigers counter by allowing 17 less rushing yards this season (112.85) and have given up 150 yards or less in 10 of 13 games (under 100 in five games). Like the Vegas line (3 points in Alabama’s favor), the metrics slightly favor the Crimson Tide as well. ESPN’s Football Power Index has Clemson as an underdog for the first time since last year’s title game, giving the Tigers a 41.9 percent win chance. That drops to 39.4 percent for TeamRankings.com, and moves up to 42 percent for Football Study Hall, which projects a 26-22 Alabama win. Why do their numbers favor the Crimson Tide? A fairly-dominant run in all three phases – outside of the one loss at Auburn to close the regular season. Here’s how the two sides shape-up going in: Advanced metrics profile Clemson ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 9. Defense – 1. Special teams – 90. Overall – 3. Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 35. Defense – 2. Special teams – 118. Success rate* (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 14 (47.1). Defense – 4 (32.1). Alabama ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 2. Defense – 4. Special teams – 49. Overall – 1. Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 19. Defense – 3. Special teams – 26. Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 9 (47.4). Defense – 9 (34). - Yards and efficiency ultimately boil down to the scoreboard – and Alabama leads the Playoff Four in scoring margin versus FBS opponents (25 PPG; Clemson’s 19.7), but versus better competition, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers easily out-class Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, averaging a 19-point margin versus AP Top 25 teams to Alabama’s 3-point margin. The two sides are similar in having run-centered offenses that rarely turn the ball over, with Alabama holding an edge in the running game and Clemson showing more balance and playmakers passing. There haven’t been many weaknesses in a Crimson Tide defense that's gone through some injury issues, but even healthier now, a spot to watch is their ability to stop the run in key situations – ranking 104th in power success rate** defense (73.9) and only 39th in overall stuff rate (22; runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage). It’s more difficult finding a flaw in a better-tested Clemson defense – stout no matter the down (14th-best in first down efficiency, 1st on second down and 4th on third down defense) and also solid in containing explosive plays (37th in IsoPP***), which Alabama’s top-15 offense in rushing (14) and passing efficiency (6) hopes to crack. The Crimson Tide passing success under Jalen Hurts’ leadership comes with a caveat, however, as they rank only behind LSU and Georgia in passing attempts from top-25 teams (276) and 114th overall. Last time out, Hurts was held to 12 completions in 22 attempts for 112 yards and one touchdown. Another area of interest, starting field position has been tilted in Alabama’s favor so far this season, ranking fifth nationally in average field position on offense (33.8) and second on defense (25.1). Clemson is in the top-25 in both, advantageous most on defense (10th, 26.5; 25th on offense, 31.3), and if they can turn the tables, Alabama could struggle relying on a more one-dimensional offense. Both teams excel in early down-and-distance situations, with top-10 rankings on offense and defense in standard downs****. A difference-maker, however, could be an elite Clemson defense on passing downs (Clemson: No. 1, 20.7 success rate; Alabama: No. 6, 23.3) and a Tigers offense up 20-plus spots and a few percentage points on their opposite number (Clemson: No. 48, 32.2 success rate; Alabama: No. 69, 30.5). Alabama also sits in 93rd nationally in passing-down sack rate (9.4; Clemson’s 64th, 7.2). An area that was the difference two games ago in the series, the special-teams advantage again goes to Alabama – ranking as high as 26th on Football Outsiders to Clemson’s 118th mark. While not exactly potent in the return game (67th on punt returns; 101st on kick returns), the Crimson Tide doesn’t allow big returns either – third in punt success rate (76.7) and 21st in kickoff success rate (85.4). Neither side has had much for consistency on kicks of 40-plus yards, with the SEC side going 5-of-11 with a long of 48 and Clemson's Alex Spence making 1-of-3 with a long of 46 yards. Any longer kick will make for an interesting decision in this one, especially with how razor-thin the margins have been between these teams. S&P+ is a Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders metric that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. * Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down. ** Percentage of runs that achieve a first down or touchdown with two or less yards to go on third/fourth down. *** IsoPPP metric, which Football Outsiders defines as looking at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays to separate the explosiveness component from the efficiency component. ***** Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs. (Unless otherwise noted, advanced stat figures are from Football Study Hall/Football Outsiders)
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