Bracket Watch: Latest NCAA Tournament projections, ACC scenarios

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Fri Mar 02 09:17:34 GMT-04:00 2018

A week full of upsets has vaulted Clemson to a position Saturday where they can move as high as a 3-seed with a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.

Brad Brownell's Tigers (22-7, 11-6 ACC) have to go and take a win from an NCAA Tournament bubble team in Syracuse (18-12/KenPom: 52/RPI: 49), but that potential victory - plus Duke downing UNC at home - would give Clemson a 3-seed.

Duke is given a 79.2 percent chance (ESPN) at earning the season-series split with UNC, while Clemson/Syracuse is a toss-up (50.4 to Clemson).

On the NCAA projections front, the Tigers' two-game win streak hasn’t budged ESPN’s industry-low 5-seed outlook, while CBS Sports and the overall Bracket Matrix average maintain a 4-seed projection. CBS is calling for a matchup with Vermont in the Midwest Region, grouped with top seeds Xavier (1), Auburn (2) and Cincinnati (3) and opposite 5-seed Ohio State in the San Diego pod.

There's more ACC Tournament projections below, but first, the NCAA Tourney profile and current conference picture...

Clemson NCAA Tournament profile

Record: 22-7 (11-6 ACC)

RPI: 8

Metrics average*: 15.7

Strength of Schedule: 15

Record v. RPI Group 1: 4-7

Average RPI of Wins: 117

Average RPI of Losses: 30

Bad losses (150+ RPI): None

Road/neutral record: 7-6

Record v. current KenPom top-50: 8-5

Top-25 ranked wins (at the time): No. 22 Florida (71-69 at neutral site), No. 18 Miami (72-63), No. 19 UNC (82-78).

Last 10: 6-4

* NCAA Tournament Selection Committee average of result-based metrics RPI, KPI, and ESPN Strength of record plus predictive-based metrics of ESPN BPI, KenPom and Sagarin.

(Tournament profile per WarrenNolan, KenPom and ESPN).

ACC Standings (as of 3/2)

SCHOOL CONF GB CPCT. OVERALL PCT. STREAK

#1 Virginia 16-1 -- .941 27-2 .931 W4

#5 Duke 12-5 4 .706 24-6 .800 L1

#9 North Carolina 11-6 5 .647 22-8 .733 L1

#18 Clemson 11-6 5 .647 22-7 .759 W2

Miami 10-7 6 .588 21-8 .724 W3

Virginia Tech 10-7 6 .588 21-9 .700 W1

NC State 10-7 6 .588 20-10 .667 L1

Louisville 9-8 7 .529 19-11 .633 L1

Notre Dame 8-9 8 .471 18-12 .600 W2

Florida State 8-9 8 .471 19-10 .655 L2

Boston College 7-10 9 .412 17-13 .567 W1

Syracuse 7-10 9 .412 18-12 .600 L3

Georgia Tech 5-12 11 .294 12-18 .400 W1

Wake Forest 4-13 12 .235 11-18 .379 L1

Pittsburgh 0-18 16.5 .000 8-23 .258 L18

ACC Tournament matchups (as of 3/2)

(In Brooklyn’s Barclays Center)

March 6 (Tuesday)

Noon ET - (12) Syracuse vs. (13) Georgia Tech; 2 p.m. - (10) Florida State vs. (15) Pittsburgh; 7 p.m. - (11) Boston College vs. (14) Wake Forest.

March 7 (Wednesday)

Noon - (8) Louisville vs. (9) Notre Dame; 2 p.m. - (5) Miami vs. (12) Syracuse/(13) Georgia Tech; 7 p.m. - (7) NC State vs. (10) Florida State/(15) Pittsburgh; 9 p.m. - (6) Virginia Tech vs. (11) Boston College/(14) Wake Forest.

March 8 (Thursday)

Noon - (1) Virginia vs. Wednesday noon game winner; 2 p.m. - (4) Clemson vs. Wed. 2 p.m. winner; 7 p.m. - (2) Duke vs. Wed. 7 p.m. winner; 9 p.m. - (3) North Carolina vs. Wed. 9 p.m. winner.

March 9 (Friday)

7 p.m. - Thursday afternoon session game winners; 9 p.m. - Thursday evening game winners.

March 10 (Saturday)

8:30 p.m. - ACC Championship

(Games will be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and also ACC Network; times are approximate).

Other ACC Tournament scenarios in play…

With a win and a UNC win over Duke: Clemson is a 4-seed. UNC wins the 3-way tiebreaker among Clemson and Duke in records versus each other for the 2-seed, and then Duke takes the 3-seed because of its head-to-head record against Clemson.

Scenarios with a loss to Syracuse: The UNC-Duke (in Durham), Virginia Tech-Miami (in Coral Gables) and Louisville-NC State (in Raleigh) games all play a factor in Clemson’s seeding in this case. The bottom-line here is that a Virginia Tech win over Miami would kick Clemson out of the double-bye race and a Miami win could move the Tigers as a high as a 3-seed with a win.

With a Duke win, Miami win and Louisville win: Clemson is a 3-seed.

With a Duke win, Miami win and NC State win: Clemson is a 4-seed.

With a UNC win, Miami win and NC State win: Clemson is a 4-seed.

With a UNC win, Miami win and Louisville win: Clemson is a 4-seed.

With a Duke win, Virginia Tech win and Louisville win: Clemson is a 5-seed.

With a UNC win, Virginia Tech win and Louisville win: Clemson is a 5-seed.

With a Duke win, Virginia Tech win and NC State win: Clemson is a 6-seed.

With a UNC win, Virginia Tech win and NC State win: Clemson is a 6-seed.