Bracket Watch: Clemson's updated NCAA Tournament projections

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by - Staff Writer -
(USA TODAY Sports-Michael David Shroyer)
(USA TODAY Sports-Michael David Shroyer)

Clemson’s three-game losing streak dropped the Tigers two seed-lines in the latest ESPN NCAA Tournament projection.

The Thursday update from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi moved Clemson from a projected 3-seed to a 5-seed and a potential rematch with exhibitiion-opponent Tennessee in the second round.

CBS Sports dropped them down to a 4-seed Friday, where the overall Bracket Matrix also slots Clemson.

In terms of ACC Tournament positioning, Clemson is one of six teams within one game of each other in the standings from fourth to ninth place - a sixth seed if the season ended today.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, Clemson has the best chance to finish fourth (28 percent) or fifth (27), with NC State holding the next-best chance at that fourth spot (17 percent). The difference in those spots is having a double-bye to start playing in the quarterfinals or a single-bye and a longer road to a potential title.

The Tigers are tied with the Wolfpack and Virginia Tech for fourth place at 9-6. After dropping three games they were projected to lose by ESPN's BPI, Clemson is expected to win out in a finish with Georgia Tech (93.5 ESPN win projection), FSU (72.9) and at Syracuse (52.7). NC State closes with FSU (54.4), at Georgia Tech (65.7) and hosting Louisville (57). Virginia Tech hosts Louisville (69.1) and Duke (28.3) and travels to Miami (34.2).

Clemson NCAA Tournament profile

Record: 20-7 (9-6 ACC)
RPI: 10
Metrics average*: 17.3
Strength of Schedule: 15
Record v. RPI Group 1: 3-7
Average RPI of Wins: 122
Average RPI of Losses: 28
Bad losses (150+ RPI): None
Record v. current KenPom top-50: 7-5
Top-25 ranked wins (at the time): No. 22 Florida (71-69 at neutral site), No. 18 Miami (72-63), No. 19 UNC (82-78).
Road/neutral record: 7-6
Last 10: 5-5
* NCAA Tournament Selection Committee average of result-based metrics RPI, KPI, and ESPN Strength of record plus predictive-based metrics of ESPN BPI, KenPom and Sagarin.

ACC Standings (as of 2/23)

SCHOOL CONF CPCT. OVERALL PCT. STREAK
Virginia 14-1 0.933 25-2 0.926 W2
Duke 11-4 0.733 23-5 0.821 W4
North Carolina 11-5 0.688 22-7 0.759 W6
Clemson 9-6 0.600 20-7 0.741 L3
Virginia Tech 9-6 0.600 20-8 0.714 W2
NC State 9-6 0.600 19-9 0.679 W3
Florida State 8-7 0.533 19-8 0.704 W2
Miami 8-7 0.533 19-8 0.704 W1
Louisville 8-7 0.533 18-10 0.643 L2
Syracuse 7-8 0.467 18-10 0.643 L1
Boston College 6-9 0.400 16-12 0.571 L2
Notre Dame 6-9 0.400 16-12 0.571 L1
Georgia Tech 4-11 0.267 11-17 0.393 L6
Wake Forest 4-12 0.250 11-17 0.393 W1
Pittsburgh 0-16 0.000 8-21 0.276 L16

ACC Tournament matchups (as of 2/23)
(In Brooklyn’s Barclays Center)
March 6 (Tuesday)
Noon ET - (12) Boston College vs. (13) Georgia Tech; 2 p.m. - (10) Syracuse vs. (15) Pittsburgh; 7 p.m. - (11) Notre Dame vs. (14) Wake Forest.
March 7 (Wednesday)
Noon - (8) Florida State vs. (9) Louisville; 2 p.m. - (5) NC State vs. (12) Boston College/(13) Georgia Tech; 7 p.m. - (7) Miami vs. (10) Syracuse/(15) Pittsburgh; 9 p.m. - (6) Clemson vs. (11) Notre Dame/(14) Wake Forest.
March 8 (Thursday)
Noon - (1) Virginia vs. Wednesday noon game winner; 2 p.m. - (4) Virginia Tech vs. Wed. 2 p.m. winner; 7 p.m. - (2) Duke vs. Wed. 7 p.m. winner; 9 p.m. - (3) North Carolina vs. Wed. 9 p.m. winner.
March 9 (Friday)
7 p.m. - Thursday afternoon session game winners; 9 p.m. - Thursday evening game winners.
March 10 (Saturday)
8:30 p.m. - ACC Championship
(Games will be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and also ACC Network; times are approximate).

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