Bracket Watch: Clemson's latest NCAA Tournament projections

If the ACC Tournament started today, Clemson would have a 7 p.m. opener in Brooklyn.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Fri Feb 09 10:25:28 GMT-04:00 2018

Thursday’s action probably didn’t do much for No. 15 Clemson’s NCAA Tournament resume, but Brad Brownell’s Tigers did take a step toward a strong ACC Tourney seeding.

Clemson improved to 20-4 overall and 9-3 in ACC play by keeping Pittsburgh winless in league action (8-17, 0-12), staying in sole possession of second-place in the ACC. And with Duke’s loss at UNC Thursday, they have a game and a half lead on the Blue Devils and the Miami Hurricanes tied for third.

Grabbing a two or three-seed in the ACC Tournament will be a goal for any of the top-tier teams to avoid meeting KenPom national efficiency-leader Virginia (23-1, 12-0 ACC) until the ACC Tourney final.

The Tigers take the weekend off before a chance to notch a seventh win over KenPom top-50 opponent at Florida State next week (KenPom: 19).

CBS Sports’ Friday bracket projection kept Clemson as a 2-seed in the East Region, finding a home in the Charlotte pod to start the tourney. In Thursday’s ESPN update, Clemson was projected as a 3-seed in the East Region along with Villanova, Michigan State and West Virginia as the other top-16 overall seeds in the group. The overall Bracket Matrix average has the Tigers as a 2-seed.

Clemson gets on average a 3 seed in BPI's simulations. BPI is not built to maximize ATS picks, and over the long-haul is about 50 % ATS. It is built to minimize error in "% chance to win a game." https://t.co/66K1PZaLHk
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 9, 2018

Clemson NCAA Tournament profile

Record: 20-4 (9-3 ACC)

RPI: 4

Metrics average*: 13.2

Strength of Schedule: 20

Record v. RPI Group 1**: 4-4

Average RPI of Wins: 114

Average RPI of Losses: 28

Bad losses (150+ RPI): None

Record v. current KenPom top-50: 6-2

Top-25 ranked wins (at the time): No. 22 Florida (71-69 at neutral site), No. 18 Miami (72-63), No. 19 UNC (82-78).

Road/neutral record: 7-4

Last 10: 7-3

* NCAA Tournament Selection Committee average of result-based metrics RPI, KPI, and ESPN Strength of record plus predictive-based metrics of ESPN BPI, KenPom and Sagarin.

**Home 1-30 RPI rank, neutral site 1-50 rank, away 1-75.

(Profile figures via WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and ESPN).

ACC Standings (as of 2/9)

SCHOOL CONF CPCT. OVERALL PCT. STREAK

Virginia 12-0 1.000 23-1 0.958 W15

Clemson 9-3 0.750 20-4 0.833 W4

Duke 7-4 0.636 19-5 0.792 L2

Miami 7-4 0.636 18-5 0.783 W3

North Carolina 8-5 0.615 19-7 0.731 W3

Louisville 7-5 0.583 17-8 0.680 W1

Virginia Tech 6-5 0.545 17-7 0.708 W1

NC State 6-5 0.545 16-8 0.667 L1

Florida State 6-6 0.500 17-7 0.708 L1

Syracuse 5-6 0.455 16-8 0.667 W1

Boston College 4-7 0.364 14-10 0.583 L1

Notre Dame 4-7 0.364 14-10 0.583 W1

Georgia Tech 4-7 0.364 11-13 0.458 L2

Wake Forest 2-10 0.167 9-15 0.375 L2

Pittsburgh 0-12 0.000 8-17 0.320 L12

ACC Tournament matchups (as of 2/9)

(In Brooklyn’s Barclays Center)

March 6 (Tuesday)

Noon ET - (12) Boston College vs. (13) Georgia Tech; 2 p.m. - (10) Syracuse vs. (15) Pittsburgh; 7 p.m. - (11) Notre Dame vs. (14) Wake Forest.

March 7 (Wednesday)

Noon - (8) NC State vs. (9) Florida State; 2 p.m. - (5) North Carolina vs. (12) Boston College/(13) Georgia Tech; 7 p.m. - (7) Virginia Tech vs. (10) Syracuse/(15) Pittsburgh; 9 p.m. - (6) Louisville vs. (11) Notre Dame/(14) Wake Forest.

March 8 (Thursday)

Noon - (1) Virginia vs. Wednesday noon game winner; 2 p.m. - (4) Miami vs. Wed. 2 p.m. winner; 7 p.m. - (2) Clemson vs. Wed. 7 p.m. winner; 9 p.m. - (3) Duke vs. Wed. 9 p.m. winner.

March 9 (Friday)

7 p.m. - Thursday afternoon session game winners; 9 p.m. - Thursday evening game winners.

March 10 (Saturday)

8:30 p.m. - ACC Championship

(Games will be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and also ACC Network; times are approximate).