Advanced outlook: Defense keys Clemson-Wake projections

Two of the ACC's best defenses by the numbers meet Saturday at noon.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Thu Oct 05 14:51:57 GMT-04:00 2017

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney outlined in every media opportunity this week just how dangerous the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are, yet the Tigers are a three-touchdown favorite going into Saturday’s noon game in Death Valley.

Advanced metrics meet those two ideas in the middle, to a certain extent.

Football Study Hall projects a 32-17 Clemson win, giving the Tigers only a 20 percent chance of being upset. ESPN’s Football Power Index is much more confident, giving the Tigers their second-highest win projection versus a Power 5 team (92.3; 92.4 versus Syracuse the most next week).

ESPN factors in recruiting rankings at some level in their formula, which likely explains the bigger margin. Since Dave Clawson took over in 2014, Wake Forest has averaged the nation’s 61st-best recruiting class, last in the ACC twice (Per 247Sports).

What works in Wake’s favor as a challenge this weekend? Experience and talent development, especially on the defensive side.

An improved four-year starting quarterback in John Wolford leads on offense and the defense is anchored by an all-upperclassmen starting group in the front-seven.

Here’s the basics of the matchup (more analysis below):

Advanced metrics profile

Clemson

ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 13. Defense – 5. Special teams – 108. Overall – 6.

Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 27. Defense – 4. Special teams – 120.

Success rate* (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 22 (47.5). Defense – 5 (29.9).

Wake Forest

ESPN efficiency rank: Offense – 39. Defense – 16. Special teams – 58 Overall – 20.

Football Outsiders efficiency rank (S&P+): Offense – 73. Defense – 15. Special teams – 88.

Success rate (Per Football Study Hall): Offense – 56 (43.7). Defense – 7 (31.4).

One of the more interesting matchups Saturday comes when Clemson enters Wake Forest territory. The Demon Deacons rank fourth in points allowed on drives inside the 40 (2.92). Clemson hasn’t been in the top-tier in the stat offensively (45th, 4.86), but when they enter the red zone, they are scoring touchdowns 82 percent of the time (14th nationally).

Defending the goalline is far from the only stat the Deacs are succeeding in. Ranking top-10 in success rate (7th, 31.4), they are fifth in stuffing run plays at or behind the line (32.3 percent), eighth in containing passing success (28.7 percent) and ninth in containing opponent success on passing downs** (20.9) with a 13th-best sack rate (12.8). Leading the nation in tackles for loss has them sixth in havoc rate (23.8; team TFL, passes defended and forced fumbles per play).

Clawson praised Clemson’s offensive line for the Tigers’ early offensive success, where they rank top-25 in line yards per carry*** on both passing (8th, 4.4 per) and standard downs (25th, 3.34). That matches up versus a strength for Wake Forest, where they are No. 6 in line yards per carry on standard downs (1.67) and No. 20 on passing downs (2.27).

In ESPN’s FPI, Wake Forest’s offense is rated higher in offensive efficiency (39th) than Virginia Tech’s offense was going into last week, and they are even to the Hokies’ ranking last week on defense (16th).

Wolford and company tend to get ahead of the chains with a 35th-best success rate on standard downs (51.1), but struggle when put in longer down-and-distance situations (103rd in passing downs success rate). Contributing the latter total, they also tend to be more conservative on passing downs with a 51.9 percent run rate (7th nationally).

Their biggest strides have come in the passing game year-to-year, improving from a success rate that ranked 119th (34.9) to 25th through five games (47.4). As referenced above, they are doing their damage on standard downs, up from 121st in success rate (41.2) there last season.

Wolford completed only 55.5 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns to 10 interceptions around a 9.9 percent sack rate last in 2016. He has almost eclipsed that touchdown mark (8) with only one interception so far, cutting the sack rate nearly in half (4.9) and also leading the Deacs with 6.3 yards per carry (taking out sacks).

That improved attack meets a Clemson defense that's been elite across the board, ranking second in containing opponent big plays and fifth in success rate (29.9) - second against the pass (24.2) and 20th versus the run (50.6).

Neither side has been efficient on special teams, as Football Study Hall ranks Wake Forest’s unit 88th-best and Clemson, 120th.

The Deacs sit at 111th in punt success rate (46.7), which is ahead of Clemson (119th, 44 percent). The Tigers are also in the triple-digits in field goal value (106th, -0.47), which adjusts for success on long-distance tries, and kick return success rate (114th, 20) – opposite a Wake Forest unit that is 96th in kickoff success rate (68) and even worse on kick returns themselves (122nd, 12.5).

*Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

**Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs.

***Line yards per carry is a measure that weighs offensive line performance in blocking to success per down-and-distance on a given run play.