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Primary Dynamics: Does Vivek Tank Trump?
General Boards - Politics
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Replies: 3
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Primary Dynamics: Does Vivek Tank Trump?

1
Aug 24, 2023, 8:49 AM
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All right sports fans, let's run through this theory: Vivek is not actually Trump's biggest asset, but biggest problem.

Here is the underlying premise: Trump's ceiling in the primaries is 35-40% of the votes, based off of 2016 numbers.

Now, this is 35-40% when he was both a) a novel phenomenon, b) more sane, and c) did not have a political record or baggage. One would have to agree that Trump is not nearly as powerful as he was in 2016, regardless of whatever "bump" you think the indictments give him. TNet's own poll had him at just 20% of Republican TNET voters, with the larger message in the comments being, "I supported him before, I am ready to move on now."

Let's just assume that DeSantis eats 10% of Trump's original base, which I feel is a reasonable number. That takes Trump down to 25/30%. Then, here comes Vivek.

If Vivek parrots the MAGA talking points, exudes the same manic energy as Trump but in a much younger more attractive package, and has the good fortune of not having to blow the campaign warchest on legal defense, does Vivek eat even more than DeSantis? Even at 10% as well, that drops Trump down to 15/20%.

I don't think 15-20% takes the primary, especially if by Super Tuesday Scott/Christie drop and their support goes to Haley or DeSantis.

Vivek would have to drop out, and I don't see him doing that unless he gets the VP slot for Trump, and I don't see Trump doing that.

2024 purple level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

drunk at the putt putt.


Re: Primary Dynamics: Does Vivek Tank Trump?

2
Aug 24, 2023, 8:50 AM
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Haley tanks Trump.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Haley's post-debate afterglow has made more optimistic about

1
Aug 24, 2023, 8:54 AM
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the GOP's future than I have been in a while.

2024 purple level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

drunk at the putt putt.


Re: Primary Dynamics: Does Vivek Tank Trump?


Aug 24, 2023, 12:34 PM
Reply

I tend to agree with your assessment and numbers for the most part. I don't see Trump dropping below 35 but, the question is, can anyone in the crowded field get above 35?

DeSantis looked strong last night, and Haley looked strong. I think all of the others looked very weak and Pence looked like a polished snob of a politician.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Men at 25 play football. Men at 40 play tennis. Men at 60 play golf. Have you noticed as men get older their balls get smaller.


Replies: 3
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