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All-In [49613]
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Inside those defensive numbers for Louisville...
Oct 6, 2014, 3:26 PM
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Let's begin with something I'm sure most folks know: The Cardinals have a very good defense.
they also haven't played an offense with a steady pulse ... not yet anyway. OTOH, Clemson has played a couple of potent offenses and held their own.
So, let's look inside some of the gaudy numbers put up by the Cards:
Passing defense: Louisville 12th nationally at 172 ypg, Clemson 17 at 180 ypg. Too close to really matter, except that Louisville's number came against teams that were No. 50,80,107,105 and 86 in passing offense. Clemson has face 2 of the nation's top 30 passing offenses. BTW, Clemson's passing offense is 10th nationally, and I think we all know if we hadn't taken our foot off the gas the past two weeks, it would be higher.
Rushing defense: Louisville is doggone impressive there, no question. They're giving up a nation's-best 58 ypg. Clemson is 24 at 110 ypg, with Georgia doing the bulk of that damage. Their opponents are 40,60,94,99 and 128 in rushing. Clemson's opponents? 13, 32, 92 and 100 ... remove UGa and the Tigers are allowing about the same amount as Louisville on the ground.
Scoring defense: Louisville is No. 6 at a efficient 12.6 ppg. Clemson is No. 45 at 22 ppg. Much of Louisville's impressive total has to do with their rushing defense. A little more may have to do with their opponents thus far. Their foes are scoring 21, 22, 31, 22 and 15 ppg ... meaning the Cards are holding them about 9 points below average. Clemson's foes average 45, 40, 36 and 35 ppg, so the Tigers average holding their foes about 16 points below average.
Taking those averages and the current scoring averages of both teams, the final score in the Valley should be Clemson 31, Louisville 17.
I can live with that.
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Orange Blooded [3898]
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From your lips to God's ear. Go Tigers Fight!***
Oct 6, 2014, 3:33 PM
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Orange Blooded [2507]
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Louisville has looked beyond pedestrian this year
Oct 6, 2014, 3:33 PM
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they were struggling with Wake Forrest and lost to Virgina....
They really think they are going to stop our offense and score at will against us? I've seen nothing from their offense that scares me, at all.
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All-In [49613]
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Oh, I didn't even worry about their offense...
Oct 6, 2014, 3:35 PM
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...Since word is they've got a WR adn QB coming back this week, I'd expect things to be a little more open on that side of the ball.
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CU Medallion [64754]
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Varsity [207]
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Re: Agreed...I was more concerned about NC State than Louisville***
Oct 6, 2014, 3:43 PM
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I'm not worried about Louisville either. It is very difficult to win a game when you have "0" on the scoreboard.
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All-In [28802]
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Only bc you're putting more stock in offense than defense
Oct 6, 2014, 4:55 PM
[ in reply to Agreed...I was more concerned about NC State than Louisville*** ] |
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I think we'll beat UofL pretty easily, too, but this game will be a battle for at least the first half. We're not going to be able to just come out and blow the doors off their defense the way we did to UNC and NC state. They don't have the same kinds of deficiencies that those teams have, and they have the ability to make us one- dimensional by stopping the run.
Our saving grace will probably be the fact that they haven't been able to do anything on offense. As we saw against UGa, if your offense can't figure anything out, eventually the team with more play- makers is going to break out.
Another concern: we're very thin on the OL going up against the best DL (statistically) that we've faced so far. I believe they've done a great job of rushing the passer, and they've also completely shut down the run. Will our OL be able to open up running lanes? Or will we be relying on Watson to make a bunch of plays all day?
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CU Medallion [64754]
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but UofL's defensive numbers are inflated.....
Oct 6, 2014, 5:05 PM
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as the result of playing a bunch of crappy offenses.
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All-In [28802]
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Not as crappy as you think...
Oct 6, 2014, 5:14 PM
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For a couple of those teams, because it's only the 6th game, their number are much worse by virtue of playing UofL. For instance, Syracuse had over 400 yards on ND the week before they played UofL, and they had nearly 600 yards against Maryland the week before that. UVa, who their offense did their best to lose to, had 386 yards against UCLA and 519 on the road against BYU the week after UofL.
Again, I'm not trying to argue we won't be able to move the ball or that I think we're going to lose, but it would be a mistake to just think it's going to be easy sledding the way it was against NC State and UNC the last couple of weeks (you could argue that OUR offensive stats are pretty inflated from playing UNC and NC State). I don't hesitate to say that UofL's defense will be better than FSU's, so I guess we'll get to just how much difference being at home makes.
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CU Guru [1929]
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Re: Inside those defensive numbers for Louisville...
Oct 6, 2014, 3:44 PM
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I like your analysis Rev. Very factual data driven. We cannot afford to assume any date on our schedule as a W.....this game will be close advert competitive but very enjoyable! Good weather, great crowd Go TIGERS!!!!!
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Trainer [35]
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Re: Inside those defensive numbers for Louisville...
Oct 6, 2014, 3:55 PM
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I don't ever like to take anyone for granted but I am having a hard time seeing a team in Louisville that could come into Death Valley and compete with Clemson. Minus mistakes and turnovers galore, I just don't see it. I think that our D-line and Linebackers will disrupt all day. Certainly wouldn't expect another shutout but I expect another dominating Defensive effort. Syracuse is not a good football team and they hung around for a long time in that game against Louisville. College Football is unpredictable but I would be surprised if we don't win going away. 38-17 Tigers. Need to stay healthy at O-line for sure. O-line depth scares me right now!
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Inside those defensive numbers for Louisville...
Oct 6, 2014, 3:59 PM
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I find it curious that the main point of analysis on their message boards is the games we lost...and how our offense/defense may not be as good as they looked in other games because of those (road) losses.
Meanwhile, they're hanging their hat on a defense who, as Rev's post illustrates, has done nothing substantial this season.
It's one thing to thing to point out Clemson's deficiencies in certain areas. It's another thing entirely to call Georgia's D "mediocre" when there's nothing to suggest that yours (UofLs) is better.
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Orange Blooded [2507]
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Let them dream. It's all they have right now
Oct 6, 2014, 4:08 PM
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by the stats NC ST was the best offense in the ACC and we stonewalled them. UL is getting back their starting QB and all world WR. However both will have rust and their WR is going to meet Alexander. I think I heard one of them call our secondary soft.
They're about to learn the name of Peters, Jenkins, Wiggins, Johnson, Kearse, Alexander and Tankersly.
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All-In [28802]
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There's good evidence that UofL is better than UGa on D
Oct 6, 2014, 4:52 PM
[ in reply to Re: Inside those defensive numbers for Louisville... ] |
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Take a loot at what UGa did against South Carolina, UT, and Vandy. The only team they gave up less yards to than us is Troy.
UofL has pretty much kept every team they've played from doing anything significant on offense. They may not have played anybody very good on offense so far, but keeping the first 6 teams on your schedule from sniffing 300 yards is pretty dang good.
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Legend [17632]
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Home vs Road...
Oct 6, 2014, 4:58 PM
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Is a HUGE difference.
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All-In [28802]
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Ok, then look at UofL on the road
Oct 6, 2014, 5:09 PM
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Here's what they gave up on the road:
UVa: 285 yards
FIU: 205
SU: 260
Those numbers are pretty impressive, even if UVa and SU aren't elite offenses. By way of comparison to other teams, UVa put up 385 yards against UCLA, 519 on BYU the week after UofL, and 346 on Pitt last week. Syracuse had 429 yards on a very good ND defense, 589 on Maryland, and 464 on CMU.
UGa obviously has played much better on defense at home in their first game against Clemson, but the UT and Vandy games I brought up were both at home and they weren't that great.
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All-In [28802]
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I don't see UofL scoring that much if the game is close
Oct 6, 2014, 4:47 PM
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That said, I don't see us scoring much over 28, either.
So, I'm going to with 28-10.
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Legend [17632]
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Well done Rev, but I think this one comes down to home field
Oct 6, 2014, 5:10 PM
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advantage. L'ville has played FIU, Virginia, and Syracuse on the road. FIU and Virginia are pathetic crowds and we know that 'Cuse's home field advantage is overrated. I think a little home cooking goes a long way and we hang 42 on them and hold them to less than 3 TD's.
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