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Replies: 16
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 2:40 AM
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Help me figure this out. I was looking at the over/under on total wins this year and the numbers are funny. Clemson is set at 8.5 (over -170, under +130) This means you have to bet $170 on the over to win $100. On the flip side you win $130 if you bet $100 on the under. So basically, Vegas thinks Clemson has a really high chance that they will win more than 8.5 games. Why not set the number to 9.5 or 10.0 to even the betting out? I don't really see the logic in the odds.
FSU is even money on the over at 9.5 wins and you have to wager $140 to win $100 if you take the under. Again, Vegas thinks FSU will have 10 or more wins this year.
Is there anyone that can explain the logic in this?
ACC
Boston College: 5.5 (over -135, under -105)
Clemson: 8.5 (over -170, under +130)
Duke: 7 (over -150, under +110)
Florida State: 9.5 (over +100, under -140)
Georgia Tech: 7.5 (over -160, under +120)
Louisville: 7.5 (over +105, under -145)
Miami: 5.5 (over -160, under +120)
North Carolina: 8 (over -115, under -125)
NC State: 7.5 (over -105, under -135)
Pitt: 6 (over -120, under -120)
Syracuse: 4.5 (over -125, under -115)
Virginia: 4.5 (over -115, under -125)
Virginia Tech: 8 (over +105, under -145)
Wake Forest: 3.5 (over -125, under -115)
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Freshman [0]
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Re: Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 3:44 AM
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I'd imagine that they want to get the most action possible, so they place the over under low and alter the payout so the over is lower and the under is higher. People that would take the under would still take it even if it was 9.5 but there would be less action on the over
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Freshman [0]
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Re: Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 3:47 AM
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Its not about what they think will happen but at what over under will make the most money. Teams like Bama will have a higher over under just for the fact that there's so many fans that will think they'll win the natty every year
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Letterman [277]
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Re: Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 6:48 AM
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Vega's goal is to keep the amt of money equal on both sides of the bet. They could do that by altering the spread or changing the odds (payout) with the same spread. With bets this far into the future it must be easier to adjust the odds. Just an educated guess
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All-In [38452]
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Re: Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 6:55 AM
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I know nothing about gambling or Vegas or why people don't just invest their money more wisely ...but I do know enough to see that Clemson football is better than 8 or 9 wins a year right now.
Depth issues and personnel losses be danged ....we win 10+ again in 2015.
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Legend [17434]
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Remember the odds factor in DW4's health.***
Jun 11, 2015, 10:17 AM
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110%er [7293]
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Re: Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 9:52 AM
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They change the odds until the money is even on both sides. Vegas makes money from the vig, their cut of your bet.
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Legend [16970]
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Re: Anyone with sports gambling knowledge
Jun 11, 2015, 10:05 AM
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Isn't FSU's spread actually the opposite of what you're saying. The lower payout is on the under making it theoretically the higher odds so they want to increase your risk factor. Our lower payout is for the over.
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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You're right. Vegas thinks FSU will win 9.***
Jun 11, 2015, 1:26 PM
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Legend [17434]
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First most lines start at +110 and -110 and then money odds
Jun 11, 2015, 10:43 AM
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move to induce betting patterns and even the risk exposure to the book. Money odds move first and then point or game odds can be adjusted to induce betting the same amount of money on each side. The goal is for the book to make 10% ( or 20% on the lines you posted) on the total amount of money wagered. Books do not like to move the point or game lines too much because gambles can "middle" the original bet. In other words, a gambler bets both sides and there is a middle where he can win both bets.
BTW find a book with 10% or even 5% (on-line) vig or rake.
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All-TigerNet [13057]
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Both sides are usually -110 because of the juice.***
Jun 11, 2015, 11:36 AM
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Legend [17434]
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Correct -my bad***
Jun 11, 2015, 6:15 PM
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CU Guru [1052]
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Vegas thinks FSU will win 9 games
Jun 11, 2015, 11:20 AM
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The closer the money line is to +100 and above, the less likely Vegas thinks it will happen. It is the same in horse racing, the less likely a horse will win, the higher the money line. (A horse at 30:1 is at +3000 on the money line) American Pharoah was at 3:5 (-167 on the money line)
Vegas thought, and the money was bet on, AP to win.
Vegas thinks FSU -140 and Clemson -170 will win 9 games this year because you have to bet $1.40 and $1.70, respectively, to win your $1 back. Now, Vegas thinks Clemson is more likely to win 9 games instead of 8, than FSU is to win 9 games instead of 10.
I'm about to take the afternoon off and play some golf and I would like to leave with one of my favorite sayings of all time..."It's not how, it's how many"
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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So you're saying Vegas actually thinks we'll have more wins?***
Jun 11, 2015, 1:27 PM
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All-TigerNet [13057]
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Season win totals are pretty much always set to .5 to avoid
Jun 11, 2015, 11:36 AM
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pushes. Since +/-1 win is a big swing, you rarely see these win totals paying out the standard -110.
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CU Medallion [51579]
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Looks like Vegas doesn't think #4 will stay healthy.***
Jun 11, 2015, 12:53 PM
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Heisman Winner [141081]
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This sounds like a trap.***
Jun 11, 2015, 12:56 PM
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Replies: 16
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