|
Replies: 16
| visibility 1
|
All-American [594]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 552
Joined: 1/2/13
|
|
|
|
 |
110%er [5711]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3351
Joined: 9/1/03
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
2
Aug 6, 2023, 9:35 AM
|
|
We’ll written and unfortunately lays out the facts that chances are slim we or FSU are going anywhere.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-American [594]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 552
Joined: 1/2/13
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
2
Aug 6, 2023, 9:37 AM
|
|
Maybe some sort of fundraising effort to pay the exit fees and GOR off…idk.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team Captain [456]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 522
Joined: 1/4/04
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
Aug 6, 2023, 5:22 PM
|
|
If the school can raise 120,000,000+ $400,000,000 to pay for the exit fee, and for the grant of rights, cost, why not just put that in the athletic budget and they can stay exactly where they are, and pay the difference between the ACC and the SEC.
For the immediate future, it is much easier for a university such as Florida State or Clemson to raise $30 million per year than it is to pay through the nose for an exit fee, and for a grant of rights.
As the years go by the mathematical formulas for a shortened length of time, for the grant of rights to ration may make it favorable to pay the fees
For now, just raise the money and give it to the athletic department. It’s cheaper.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [17635]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14169
Joined: 10/24/10
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-American [594]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 552
Joined: 1/2/13
|
Re: North Carolina Homer
3
Aug 6, 2023, 10:23 AM
|
|
I’m sure. The sticky thing I think is undeniable is that ESPN has rights to tv revenue from our home games until 2036. So I think the real issue here is negotiating with ESPN to get the present value of that revenue paid off.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-American [594]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 552
Joined: 1/2/13
|
Re: North Carolina Homer
2
Aug 6, 2023, 10:33 AM
|
|
One thing that irks me is TCI. They smugly sit there and say the GOR is no impediment to Clemson leaving “if they get an invitation”. Well the whole point is that it’s very difficult to get an invitation at this point because ESPN owns the revenue to our home games ‘til 2036 at a very discounted rate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2879]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3051
Joined: 9/10/04
|
Re: North Carolina Homer
Aug 6, 2023, 4:43 PM
|
|
TCI is correct, nothing moves forward without an invite. What they pointed out is that Clemson has been in private discussions and planning for how to move forward if/when an invite is extended for almost 2 yrs. In other words they have a plan to address GoR somehow (we are left to wonder how). They also pointed towards triggering events (ie PAC12 tv contract disaster) that needed to happen before the SEC or Big10 would begin looking towards the ACC. That first trigger occurred and the results were quick and dramatic for the PAC12 schools. The article above is right. Everything could slow down waiting for the correct alignment of buyout amounts, stronger interest from Fox or ESPN to push for ACC schools, etc.. There really is no clear timetable. It all depends on the motivation from the networks who will be pushing for larger P2 conferences.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3639]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5124
Joined: 4/23/19
|
Great article. Point #2 is what many fans ignore or don't...
3
Aug 6, 2023, 11:21 AM
|
|
understand. It's about eyeballs, not winning.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [48374]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14946
Joined: 11/7/20
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
1
Aug 6, 2023, 12:18 PM
|
|
Thanks for posting the link. Imo, it's nothing we didn't already know. I know many have predicted the "sky is falling " on the acc for click bait, but the one I read the other day stated it more like this fella did, but said the acc is dying on the vine. I concur with that statement. But I also agree with what he says about the eyeballs. FSU’s LTV is much higher than Clemson's is. Based on other factors than football. Let Clemson go back to the Bowden era of winning in games. Those eyeballs drop dramatically. We are then just another acc school... very much on par with va tech. Clemson hasn't got the Endowment that even Duke or uva have. Therefore, this vetting that is being done, is not just football, it's a university long term value LTV. That's where we fall short and become less attractive than an fsu or even Duke.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Associate AD [824]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 572
Joined: 4/20/15
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
1
Aug 6, 2023, 12:37 PM
|
|
A very good, well- reasoned article. I think it hits the nail on the head. The ACC will not last until 2036, or least not without significant increases in revenue to members. However, as the cost of the GOR goes down (per school) by some $40 million per year each year moving forward, the more financially feasible it becomes to exit. I'm going to guess several things.
1. No one turns in a notice by 8/15 that they do not intend to play next year.
2. Clemson and FSU will conclude that they can compete with the revenue they have for at least several more years, probably 3 - 5, because the initial revenue gap between the SEC and B1G teams and Clemson and FSU will not be $40 million and the ACC will likely come up with some ways to create additional revenue (laugh at CW all you want, but the fact is that it will create additional revenue) and if Clemson and FSU go to the CFP that will create more revenue for them. Likewise, if they can get their basketball houses in order and make NCAAT runs (yeah, I know...) that will create more revenue.
3. Clemson and FSU (and probably others) are going to create spreadsheets beginning this time next year that will provide the cost of departure every year between then and 2036. Somewhere in that there will be a number they find palatable that will hopefully occur before the additional revenue to the SEC and the B1G starts to have a meaningful impact.
4. The ACC will not survive past either 2029 or 2030, or at least Clemson and FSU will announce plans to depart by then. That is when the next new contracts will be negotiated by the SEC, B1G and Big 12. Those contracts/payouts per team will be even bigger and the cost of exiting the ACC will be much lower than today (about half) so the financial risk will be comparatively low compared to today. This assumes the status quo of ACC money remains the same. If the ACC can somehow narrow the gap so Clemson and FSU feel like they can remain competitive, then there may be no reason to exit, since they both say they love the ACC and want to stay.
5. If the palatable number occurs before 2030 and Clemson and FSU feel like they are losing ground competitively, then they will leave at that point. It will be a sliding scale from here until they actually announce they are leaving.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3828]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3569
Joined: 10/10/11
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
Aug 6, 2023, 12:45 PM
|
|
I’m not laughing at the CW. It’s just the third tier rights, lowest on the totem pole after the ESPN, including ACCN pick what they want.
But is it additional revenue or just replacing the amount Bally/Sinclair was paying for the same content?
I think CW is better for fans bc a lot of our basketball games have been on “RSN” lately and many of us with YouTubeTV and the like haven’t been able to watch. Now, it’s on OTA which is far superior to the shrinking number of homes which have RSN access (Bally, etc)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2879]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3051
Joined: 9/10/04
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
Aug 6, 2023, 4:51 PM
|
|
I’m not laughing at the CW. It’s just the third tier rights, lowest on the totem pole after the ESPN, including ACCN pick what they want.
But is it additional revenue or just replacing the amount Bally/Sinclair was paying for the same content?
I think CW is better for fans bc a lot of our basketball games have been on “RSN” lately and many of us with YouTubeTV and the like haven’t been able to watch. Now, it’s on OTA which is far superior to the shrinking number of homes which have RSN access (Bally, etc)
CW was revenue neutral for the conference. ESPN had the lower tier broadcasts that they contracted to Bally/Raycom. Now CW/Raycom move forward with the contract. It is better coverage situation with CW and de risks the ACC from the Bally financial woes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [4791]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 4833
Joined: 1/8/19
|
Re: Pretty Comprehensive Article on the Fate of the ACC
1
Aug 6, 2023, 12:56 PM
|
|
What's gonna have to happen is for a bunch of behind the scenes deals to be cut so that a majority of teams all leave the ACC at once which, from what we've heard, will nullify the contract. The league will basically dissolve in one day, kind of like what just happened to the Pac10, with only the few least desirable teams left looking for a home.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2519]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3327
Joined: 8/23/02
|
All of this is based on assumptions of future revenue
1
Aug 6, 2023, 1:24 PM
|
|
And isn't taking into account the changing nature of how fans get their sports, and fan interest overall.
At some point the TV networks will reneg on the deals because the money just isnt there. Also, why are TV networks even necessary anymore? Why do the ACC, SEC, B1G etc need ESPN? There are enough eyeballs interested and they could easily sell access similar to Hulu, Netflix, etc. essentially on an app. How many people would pay $20/month directly to a league for that?
But, what would be better, imo, than leaving the ACC per se, get 8 teams to dissolve it entirely and set up a new ACC with the top fan bases which would be more valuable per team. The new 12 team playoff makes smaller conferences more viable to make it and really eliminates the need for super-conferences.
Add to all this a coming economic depression and dollar collapse and it all becomes moot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2879]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3051
Joined: 9/10/04
|
Re: All of this is based on assumptions of future revenue
Aug 6, 2023, 4:59 PM
|
|
Good point about what the future holds. ESPN has yet to turn their business around. So far it’s been cost cutting only. There’s a point where these constantly escalating media deals can no longer be justified. Fox is in conquest mode right now. A financial hiccup elsewhere could cool their jets also. The Big10 and SEC may be in for a big surprise come time to negotiate their next tv deals.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1620]
TigerPulse: 93%
Posts: 1616
Joined: 11/23/10
|
Re: All of this is based on assumptions of future revenue
Aug 6, 2023, 5:35 PM
[ in reply to All of this is based on assumptions of future revenue ] |
|
Agreed ! And Disney is about to dump ESPN . Word is Apple is a buyer and they didn’t offer much to the PAC. So what does that do for the future of their broadcasts ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 16
| visibility 1
|
|
|
50
