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Odds that Clemson, Alabama, and Oregon all go undefeated....
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CU Guru [1950]
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Odds that Clemson, Alabama, and Oregon all go undefeated....
Sep 16, 2013, 4:30 PM
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People who are convinced that all 3 schools are going to go undefeated don't understand probability. The odds are pretty low that even one of the teams go undefeated, let alone all 3.
For Alabama, let's assume these win probabilities for each game:
Colorado State 99%
Ole Miss 85%
Georgia State 100%
at Kentucky 99%
Arkansas 95%
LSU 70%
at Miss. State 95%
Chattanooga 100%
at Auburn 90%
SEC Championship Game (UGA or SC) 70%
Alabama still, with these generous probabilities, would only have a calculated 33% chance of going undefeated.
For Oregon:
Cal 99%
at Colorado 99%
at Washington 85%
Washington State 99%
UCLA 85 %
at Stanford 51%
Utah 99%
at Arizona 90%
Oregon State 95%
PAC 12 Championship Game 85%
Again, very generous probabilities, and the calculation comes out to 26%.
For the odds that both teams go undefeated, based on these probabilities, you would get around 8%.
People around here act like it's almost a certainty that all of these teams are going to go undefeated, which just isn't going to be the case. It's extremely difficult for even one team to go undefeated, let alone multiple.
Now if people would start talking about whether a 1-loss Clemson team would get in over a 1-loss Oregon or Alabama team (or an undefeated Louisville team), I'd be onboard, because that's a more likely situation to come up in December.
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110%er [6911]
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Zero chance***
Sep 16, 2013, 5:10 PM
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Member [28]
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Re: Odds that Clemson, Alabama, and Oregon all go undefeated....
Sep 16, 2013, 5:35 PM
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Oregon has a habit of pulling a "Oregon" and losing a game they shouldn't towards the end of the year, LSU I think has something for Bama this year. We just have to play to our full potential every game and I am confident we will be there!
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110%er [5249]
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Bama, I think, has a better shot to lose based on schedule
Sep 16, 2013, 5:38 PM
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But I want them because I can hear the excuses now if it was Clemson/Oregon in the MNC:
"Yeah, well, you didn't play the REAL champ. You didn't beat the SEC"
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All-TigerNet [10871]
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Improbable, yes. Impossible, no.
Sep 16, 2013, 5:39 PM
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Of those three teams mentioned, I'd say the one that has the least likely chance of going undefeated is Clemson. I'm fairly confident in every game with the exception of GT, FSU, and USuC. I think the edge obviously goes to us in the GT and FSU games, but USuC is a good team and cootlumbia will be a hostile environment.
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Replies: 4
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