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110%er [6226]
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Best & Worst possible scenarios?
May 20, 2012, 1:38 PM
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I'm trying to look at this whole situation objectively and, to me, it just doesn't look good.
I feel like the best possible scenario-- Clemson & FSU receiving an invite from the SEC-- is never, ever, going to happen. It doesn't make sense when it comes to TV revenue (the SEC has those markets covered) and it doesn't make sense for either UF or SCar.
The worst-case scenario scares me because I think it could happen:
The SEC invites Va Tech & UNC (or NC State). Va Tech joins in a heartbeat. UNC doesn't want to join, but does, seeing the writing on the wall for the ACC (in this case, if UNC declines citing its relationship with Duke, NC State jumps at the chance).
The Big 12, wanting to get to 12 to keep its title game, then invites FSU and either UNC or NC State (whichever school did not jump to the SEC).
This scenario leaves Clemson in an 8-school ACC, minus UNC, NC State, FSU, and Va Tech.
Could it happen? I think it could, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario.
The middle-of-the-road scenarios are probably the most likely: The ACC survives and avoids any defections or FSU & Clemson bolt for the Big 12 before the rest of the conference crumbles.
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All-TigerNet [14751]
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Worst case is folks defect from ACC and we are left
May 20, 2012, 1:44 PM
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as the Southern most team in an otherwise northern and bball centric league that is NOT part of the "Big 4" in football with no auto bid to a playoff. This only happens if Big12 and SEC expand accordingly (you put the pieces where you want) and we either CHOOSE to not go or are not invited.
Best case is we end up in a Big 4 conference (whichever one it is) and are there with a few folks from our region so we are not on an island (Like BC was in ACC, or like WV is now in Big12).
The problem is people argue against these moves and say "hey we had our glory days in the ACC when it was nothing, we won a national title as well", but that was in a unstructured post season invironment. We are talking about a situation now where you could be LOCKED OUT of meaningful post season games if you are not part of the Big 4.
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CU Guru [1201]
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Re: Best & Worst possible scenarios?
May 20, 2012, 1:45 PM
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No way the Big 12 takes NC State ahead of Clemson. The worst possible scenario would be if the Big 12 takes FSU and ND ahead of Clemson and stops at 12. I doubt if that will happen because if they get ND they'd want to go 13+ to trigger the TV contract look in to get more money. Clemson would be #13 and probably GT as #14.
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Orange Blooded [3575]
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i sort of feel the same way you do, but...
May 20, 2012, 1:45 PM
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if all these conferences are aiming to get into the 16 team range then i feel like we are a "shoe in" for something based on our brand.
if big 12 is going towards 16 then they need 6 teams...correct? SEC will need 2 more. that is 8 spots open. regardless of tv market i don't think there are 8 brands of football (not affliated with those conferences) that are better than ours.
i tend to think nothing is going to happen this year. it really doesn't make sense for ND to join the Big 12. they are natural fit for the Big 10 and if it becomes evident that ND is serious, those two conferences will more than likely get into a bidding war for the services of ND. the big 10 will not go quietly if ND is up for grabs.
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110%er [6226]
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Re: i sort of feel the same way you do, but...
May 20, 2012, 1:58 PM
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tigerbum,
I think you make a good point... Let's hope the magic number is 16 for both conferences and that we're one of those 8 schools to get the SEC & Big 12 there. Again, objectively speaking and based on eyeballs on the TV and/or brand... UNC, FSU, ND, Va Tech are ahead of us. Others that will be making a desperate effort will be Ga Tech, Miami, NC State, UVA, Maryland, Louisville.
Wake Forest and BC cannot feel good about what's happening right now.
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Oculus Spirit [94260]
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Rookie [13]
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Re: Best & Worst possible scenarios?
May 20, 2012, 2:10 PM
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Clemson will not get left behind. Your football brand is too good for you to be left on the outside looking in. Big 12 or some kind of strengthened ACC is probably most likely, although I don't think SEC is out of the question. When SEC added TAMU and Mizzou as a western frontier, it basically left the door open for 2 southeastern schools to make it 16. Don't think VT will be able to separate from UVA... So I think maybe NCSU and one other. Clem would be a strong candidate.
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Oculus Spirit [94260]
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If we consider that this entire exercise in speculation is..
May 20, 2012, 2:16 PM
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founded on the premise that everybody wants more money it becomes evident that Clemson is one of the prime targets.
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MVP [510]
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I think we will be OK
May 20, 2012, 2:23 PM
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Clemson has been too quiet for there to be a problem.
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