An Honest Evaluation

Dec 31, 2022, 9:09 PM

WARNING: I’m a Gamecock fan, or “Coot” or whatever name you want to call me. However, I write this truly as an outsider. It is my personal assessment of where Clemson is and where I see them going.
Also, I have no insider information. This is solely my opinion of what has transpired and what may come….

Dabo
As I recall, Dabo came from a rough background. I seem to remember reading about him being homeless with his Mom while in HS. This experience had to have an incredibly powerful influence on him. At the age of 16, religion helped him claw his way out of such a tough situation. Dabo brought this “prosperity gospel” mindset with him to Clemson. If he could be lifted from poverty by embracing religion, certainly he could help others do the same.

College Football Landscape
The landscape of college football has changed over the years. In recruiting, it has evolved as follows:
Tradition Based: “Sign with us because we have a winning program”. Bear Bryant / John McKay used this technique to perfection.
Skills Based: “Sign with us because we can showcase your talents to NFL scouts”
NIL Based: “Sign with us, here is the CASH”

In a Tradition Based environment, SoCal / ND / Bama / Michigan / Ohio State rule. However, this environment ended in the 90’s.

Dabo operates in the Skills Based environment. The sales pitch is “sign with us and we’ll showcase your skills to NFL scouts, As a bonus, we’ll also surround you with a religious setting where you’ll grow into an outstanding person.”

The NIL environment is “we’ll showcase your skills and pay you a lot of CASH while you’re here.”

Personally, I think Dabo is disgusted by the NIL environment. Much like SCAR basketball head coach Eddie Fogler was disgusted by the down and dirty AAU basketball recruiting environment. Eddie decided to get out of coaching rather than participate in this type of process.

NIL is really no different. Let’s say a coach needs a tight end for next season. The coach’s emissary contacts a TE on another team with “hey I know you’re not in the portal, but we sure need a TE and have $’s lined up if someone like yourself entered the portal.”

I don’t blame Dabo for his unwillingness to participate in this “transaction”, but that is where college FB is today. So, Dabo is out there selling Skills Based recruiting. “We can showcase your skills…” but with no NIL money.

This situation screams out loud that SEC TV money does Clemson no good. Yes, players like nice facilities, but really want the NIL CASH. Dabo isn’t willing to jump in the mud with all the other pigs. So, a decline in the winning % of his program seems inevitable.

Clemson Fans
The fans can be grouped into two lots:
- The “why can’t we adapt” group (WCWA)
- The Clemson Culture group (CC)

The WCWA group will continue to roast Dabo during the inevitable decline. However, they are also the ones who dumped on Ken Hatfield years ago for a 9-3 season.
The CC group drinks the Dabo Kool-aid. They believe in the “Clemson Culture” and the “Best is the Standard” sales slogans.
Ultimately, the WCWA group will prevail since no one really cares about “culture” if they are not winning.

Where Does This End
Dabo continues coaching for the short term. He doesn’t do it for the money, but for the chance to influence lives and win games along the way. Fans jump on him for not going NIL, but he doesn’t care. He will continue to follow a pattern that literally changed his life for the better. He is not going to give up on that pattern.

So, Clemson becomes caught in an uncomfortable situation. Retain a previously successful coach who doesn’t now do what it takes to win within the rules, or show him the door. Ultimately, after one too many losses to SCAR and no ACC championships (due to Miami/FSU actively using the portal) the boosters will twist the arm of the young AD to encourage Dabo to resign.

Clemson then hires Mr. Portal. Mr. Portal enjoys some success, but endures many up and down years (like everyone else in this era of free agency).

That is as far as my crystal ball san see into the future.

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Thank you for the thoughtful and well-reasoned post.

I will argue about one aspect of your analysis.

Clemson’s limited use of the NIL is driven by two factors: Financial and cultural.

Financially (and this will be the case as long as the B1G or SEC do not bring Clemson into their conference) Clemson knows that we cannot compete against the rich programs in the NIL arena. It is foolish to delude ourselves that we can do this on a sustainable basis. Therefore, Clemson is (and will continue to do so as long as Dabo is so highly influential) attempting to maintain a high level of success by …

Cultural aspects. Clemson has established a rare combination of being a big winner while cultivating a reputation as a ‘builder of men.’ This is not being done in a ‘no NIL’ environment; we figure out how to get NIL deals done for our star players. The cultural component has, thus far, kept Clemson from having to be the highest NIL bidder (or something close to that) for the families of kids that are not financially strapped.

(*) Clearly, this ‘primarily culture, secondarily NIL’ approach will exclude us from being in the running for the majority of HS and/or Portal players.

Portal players are more likely to have become cynical about the ‘culture’ recruiting pitch; these players have either become disillusioned with their first program, or those players / families of those players had a change of heart and decided that money NOW is better than culture forever.

Therefore, Clemson under Dabo must be highly selective when pursuing portal players so that our reputation remains untarnished as a place that strives to develop HS players, as opposed to a place that discards the aspirations of former HS players (I.e., those guys that have worked hard and done what the coaches ask of them) in favor of veritable mercenaries.

Significant departure from this approach will quickly relegate us to a NC State type of program.

We will continue to pursue portal players at the extremes … Paul Tyson and Hunter Johnson type players that may be good enough to help us to eke out a win vs. mediocre opponents -and- high end players such as former UVA / current MI center Olutawami. Probably more so than with the hotly contestedHS star player, Clemson’s success rate in getting one of our few portal player targets such as Olutawami will be worse than with our success in getting the HS star.

Dabo is a near sure thing to stay as our HC until after Drew Swinney graduates and uses up his elibility. After that? Who knows.

(***) Even if neither the B1G nor SEC comes calling, we should continue to be a very good team. However, far too many Clemson fans have developed a sense of entitlement that we should be in the CFP every year. This ‘every year’ thing won’t happen even with the expanded playoffs. But we will make appearances in the expanded CFP on a regular basis as long as Dabo remains as our HC.

JMO.

An Honest Evaluation

That's not an outlandish guess.

Re: An Honest Evaluation

Another reasonable guess.

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