Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Georgia Tech projections

Cade Klubnik helped lead Clemson to its best win of the season last week, and he will have opportunities to move the ball against a poorly-rated Georgia Tech defense.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 08 13:25:07 GMT-04:00 2023

Saturday in Death Valley features two teams that have been hard to get a handle on this season.

Taking a closer look at how Clemson and Georgia Tech compare:

Efficiency rankings

Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (23): 41 | 12 | 77

GT SP+ ranks (62): 48 | 83 | 82

CU FEI ranks (25): 45 | 9 | 109

GT FEI ranks (51): 28 | 81 | 45

CU FPI ranks (20): 64 | 4 | 125

GT FPI ranks (49): 23 | 90 | 43

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The Yellow Jackets are not exactly a metrics darling, particularly with the SP+ (lowest overall ranking of 62; lowest offensive ranking of 48; lowest special teams ranking of 82). All of the defensive ratings are in the lower tier of Power 5 football, with the most surprising game being giving up 563 yards at home to Boston College.

Clemson’s rankings have stayed about the same, ranging from the fringe of the Top 40 offensively to outside the Top 60, while the defense has had marks as high as the Top 5, with issues aplenty on special teams but some signs of improvement lately.

Clemson is coming off its best win, over an SP+-rated No. 10 team in Notre Dame, while Georgia Tech has knocked off two teams in the Top 26 of those ratings lately with Miami (26) and UNC (19). The Yellow Jackets also own a home loss to No. 107 Bowling Green in late September and No. 78 Boston College in October, while Clemson’s worst loss is No. 47 NC State.

Three Georgia Tech players to watch

1. QB Haynes King

The Texas A&M transfer has largely improved as the season has gone on, posting his best PFF grade in the dominating win at Virginia last weekend (86.9). Four of his top-five grades have come in the last five games, with improvement in each of the last three (74.6 v. BC; 75.5 v. UNC). Against Virginia, King was asked to mostly hit shorter throws, with 18 of his 23 completions being under 10 yards in length, but he did throw a 58-yard TD pass.

King grades well in deeper passes, with nine touchdowns to four interceptions and 12.8 yards per attempt on throws of 20+ yards with a 74.7 grade, while having his best mark in medium tosses (10-19 yards) at 87.5, with five touchdowns to two interceptions.

In GT’s standout rushing attack of late, King has averaged 17.6 yards per carry with three touchdowns in the last three games (taking out sacks).

2. GT RBs Jamal Haynes and Dontae Smith

The two have combined to average 174 rushing yards per game over the last three games, scoring six touchdowns. Smith averaged 8.1 yards per carry in the win over North Carolina, while Haynes hit seven yards per carry in the win at Virginia.

Smith leads GT in PFF grade this season (82.4), and Haynes isn’t far behind (75.4).

Jamal Haynes led the charge with 119 yards and a touchdown! 🐝@GeorgiaTechFB | #ACCFootball pic.twitter.com/oxlCrTxrNk
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) November 6, 2023

On your mark, get set, go! 🚀

Dontae Smith sprints past defenders for a 70-yard touchdown! @GeorgiaTechFB | #ACCFootball pic.twitter.com/w57ga40XM9
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 29, 2023

3. WR Eric Singleton Jr.

Going all offense this week with Georgia Tech’s strength and the speedy freshman Singleton can be a problem for a defense. His six touchdown catches are tied for second in the ACC, and he also ranks second in the league in yards per catch (16.7).

College Football’s Fastest Five of the Week:

T1. @GeorgiaTechFB WR Eric Singleton (@EricSingletonJ2) 21.7 mph #ReelSpeed

🎥: @ESPNPlus

🔗 https://t.co/eQpG3v2547 pic.twitter.com/JkUQKqmbx3
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) November 7, 2023

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Clemson didn’t need to take shots last week against Notre Dame and hit some key conversions with slants over the middle, but to be a prolific offense, some deep shots to open things up with big plays would certainly complement things well.

After 22 of his 26 attempts were from 10 yards and in last week, Cade Klubnik’s 6.4 yards per attempt is the worst for a Clemson starting QB since DJ Uiagalelei’s 2021 season (6). Comparing those seasons, Klubnik has a 3.7% turnover-worthy play rate (PFF), compared to a 2.5% rate for Uiagalelei in his first year as the starter also. Before 2021, the worst yards per attempt average for a Clemson QB with the majority of snaps was Cole Stoudt in 2014 (6.3).

Clemson is 104th this season in completions of 20+ yards (22), and the 2.44 per game is the worst since 2010 (2.38). Clemson was in the Top 11 nationally in 20+ yard completions each season from 2018-20 (as high as third) and was also Top 11 in 2016, 2015 and 2012.

Odds

Clemson -14.5; 55.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 34-19 (82% Clemson win projection)

FEI: Clemson 27-18 (73.9% Clemson win projection)

GEORGIA TECH @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/2nFyXGGVfQ
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 7, 2023

ESPN FPI: 80.6% Clemson projection

Analysis: Metrics are mixed on whether Clemson is in position to run away with one, which would be the first time since the second half of the Syracuse game.

It’s hard to get a read on this team and college football, in general, this year, making picks tough, but it appears that Georgia Tech has more skill position weapons to threaten Clemson’s defense than Notre Dame did, which means Clemson’s offense will have to execute at a higher level to pull away past the number. The Tigers win, but a Yellow Jackets team still in contention for an ACC Championship puts up enough fight to keep it at two touchdowns or under. Pick: Georgia Tech +14.5 (2-7 on ATS picks, 5-4 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).