Inside the Numbers: Time for Tigers to break out of recent slide

Ethan Darden has had some hard luck in his starts lately.

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Mon May 13 13:13:33 GMT-04:00 2024

Teams wanting to make a deep postseason run need to play at their peak this time of year. A Clemson team wanting to break a long string of postseason disappointment is currently trending in the wrong direction.

Clemson last made it to the College World Series in Omaha in 2010. The Tigers defeated Arizona State (6-3) and Oklahoma (6-4). The Oklahoma game was suspended (due to weather), with the Tigers leading 6-1. The game resumed the next day, and the Tigers held on for the 6-4 victory and advanced to the CWS semifinals.

Of course, Clemson lost its next two games, both to South Carolina, as the Gamecocks marched to the College World Series title.

The Tigers advanced to the CWS after winning the Auburn Regional. Clemson returned home and defeated Alabama to win the Super Regional and advance to Omaha. That blazing-hot Super Regional was the last time the Tigers played in a Super Regional.

Clemson lost in the Clemson Regional in 2011, the Columbia Regional in 2012 and 2013, the Fullerton Regional in 2015, the Clemson Regional in 2016, 2017, and 2018, and the Oxford Regional in 2019. The NCAA Tournament was canceled in 2020, and the Tigers missed the tournament in 2021 and 2022.

Things looked to be trending in the right direction last season as the Tigers entered the postseason on the type of hot streak you need to make a run. The Tigers won 17 straight games, captured the school’s first ACC Tournament title since 2016, and landed as a No. 4 overall national seed. Clemson once again didn’t make it out of its own regional, however.

The numbers are trending in the wrong direction in 2024. When Clemson swept Notre Dame in early April, the Tigers were 28-3 overall and 10-2 in the ACC. The Tigers lost a midweek game to USC Upstate that week, starting a stretch in which the Tigers are 9-10 overall and 7-8 in ACC play. That’s right, the Tigers have won just nine games since April 7th.

The Clemson bullpen has been a major issue – against Georgia, the bullpen pitched 11 1/3 innings and gave up just three runs, a stellar effort against one of the best-hitting teams in the nation. Since then, the bullpen has given up 46 runs in 41 innings. Nick Clayton has pitched well all season, but since pitching four strong innings against Georgia has given up seven earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning and twice failed to record an out.

Despite the recent mound struggles, the Tigers are still second in the ACC in pitching with a 4.51 ERA (UNC is atop the league at 4.17). Florida St. is on the heels of the Tigers at 4.52, and Duke stands at 4.55.

The defense has been better of late – the Tigers have just 14 errors in their last 11 games, and three of those came in one game. The Tigers are still hitting homers, but strikeouts must be a concern. Since the Georgia game, the Tigers have struck out 117 times and walked 42 times. (To be fair, a full 40 of those strikeouts came in two games, 21 at Georgia and 19 at Wake last weekend. That’s 34 percent). Three players have combined for 57 of those strikeouts.

To sum it up, this team is still hitting and scoring runs (despite running into elite pitching this past weekend), even though strikeouts are a concern. The starting pitching has been mostly reliable, but the bullpen has been a significant concern. But let’s take a look at Clayton – he gave up just eight earned runs in his first 12 appearances. He’s given up almost that (seven) in his last three outings. That means his track record says he isn’t as bad as he’s been lately, and several other relievers are in the same proverbial boat.

In that starting rotation, freshman Aidan Knaak has been outstanding, ranking third in the ACC in ERA (3.22), and Ethan Darden has had hard luck, with Clemson losing his last five starts despite his surrendering three earned runs per game in them.

And there’s no time like the present to turn it around – the Tigers play at Coastal (weather permitting) Tuesday and host Boston College for the final three regular season games this weekend. The Eagles are last in the ACC in hitting and next-to-last in pitching.