Tuesday July 06, 2010
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Tuesday July 06, 2010
The Magic Number Last week I wrote a blog about some of the key stats that showed how successful Virginia Tech has been in recent seasons. Over the weekend I started looking at some numbers and stats to see which are vital in terms of Clemson’s success. Obviously scoring defense is a huge stat and that number will need to come down from the 20.4 points per game the Tigers allowed last season. Turnover margin is another key statistic and the Tigers were +6 last season which is above average. Stopping the run appears to be one of the top five statistics to determine success and the Tigers gave up too many yards on the ground last year with a 152 mark so that number will need to improve. And lastly, rushing yards per game is a big factor. Last season Clemson had an excellent season by averaging 170 yards per game on the ground. I stumbled on a couple of interesting stats including one “Magic Number.” Clemson averaged 35 rushes per game last year which was up from 33 the previous season. We all know that teams that are winning the game usually run the ball more and the trailing team is forced to throw a little more often. Also the winning team views the running game as an opportunity to run out the clock and preserve the win. The magic number for Clemson rushes per game seems to be 40. Clemson is 13-8 under Dabo in his first one-plus years as the head coach but the Tigers are 4-0 when they had 40 rushes in a game and 9-8 in those where the Tigers have less than 40 rushes. I keep going back to the South Carolina game of 2008 as the key game for Dabo as the interim head coach. I think the 31-14 win was the one that got him the job at Clemson and in that key game Clemson ran the ball 47 times or 14 more times that the average for the season. The situation was switched last season when South Carolina only averaged 33 carries per game but had 58 rushes against Clemson in their 34-17 win over the Tigers. I preach about the commitment to the run continuously on my radio show and this blog but I do understand that you have to be able to have some success in order to fully commit to the run. No one is suggesting you have to try to run the ball all day when it obviously can’t work. Perhaps the best example of this was the Alabama or Nebraska games of 2008. The commitment to the run were not the problems, Terrence Cody and Ndamkong Suh were the problems. It did not matter how many times the Tigers tried to run the ball on those days. Against Alabama the Tigers had 14 carries for zero yards and against Nebraska they had 26 carries for 14 yards. So you have to have some success to continue with the full commitment but often times I see teams that can run the ball well and still chose to get too cute and try to remain balanced. Often times some teams abandon the run too soon or put too much into the idea of balance. Why stop running the ball if the other team can’t stop you? The other issue that will arise in 2010 is the loss of C.J. Spiller. Clemson got the ball to Spiller in a bunch of different ways last season so this offense will have to adjust to his absence in 2010. Later this week I want to get into the offensive line, Andre Ellington, Jamie Harper and other items to examine in previewing the running game but today I just wanted to discuss the importance of establishing the run and staying committed to running the football. There are several ways a team can run the ball today. Oregon averaged 42 carries per game and won the Pac-10 by rushing for 242 yards per game in the spread rushing attack. Virginia Tech has averaged more than 10 wins a season the last six years with a power running game. Last year the Hokies averaged 44 carries and 208 yards rushing per game with a lead blocker at fullback. Georgia Tech takes it to the extreme in their option attack that averaged 57 carries and 295 yards per game on the ground last season. Those are three examples of three teams that use three different offenses to execute the same commitment to running the football. As a side note, those teams combined to go 31-9 last season. Personnel is also a key. The two teams that played for the national title last year took two different approaches offensively. Alabama had inexperience with Greg McElroy at quarterback and two terrific running backs with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, so the Tide ran the ball 43 times per game last season. Texas had Colt McCoy back at quarterback and averaged 37 carries per contest but threw it 540 times last season compared to 346 passes attempted by Alabama. Clemson’s offense will be different this year if Tajh Boyd is under center compared to if Kyle Parker came back. But every quarterback who has ever played would prefer to have a strong running game to compliment his abilities. The Tigers may see the number of carries go up for two other reasons in 2010. First, I doubt Clemson hits on as many big plays without Spiller. Therefore, longer drives may be needed. Also the field position will not be as good as it was with Spiller and Ford returning kicks. Again this mean more opportunities for longer, more sustained drives. So when you go into each game in 2010 look at the number of rushes for each team, hope that the Tigers hit the magic number of 40 and continue the unbeaten trend. The Brad Hughes All-State Insurance Agency
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I agree. A good running game, smothering defense, and solid special teams will get you a long way.
Posted by Locotiger on July 06, 2010 at 11:44 AM EDT #
Nice blog today, MP. You're right. Running is the key for MOST winning formulas. Especially when the formula includes a rookie QB who may only play becuase he has to, not necessarily because he's ready to.
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Posted by 91.214.45.253 on July 06, 2010 at 12:58 PM EDT #
I'm not sure how "magic" that number is.
Do you realize that teams will mostly run the ball late in the game when they are playing with a lead?
So...teams will typically have more rushes in games they won, especially if they won by a significant margin.
Posted by E335JStone on July 06, 2010 at 01:06 PM EDT #
E335JStone,
In the 7th paragraph, I wrote, "We all know that teams that are winning the game usually run the ball more and the trailing team is forced to throw a little more often. Also the winning team views the running game as an opportunity to run out the clock and preserve the win. "
Posted by Mickey Plyler on July 06, 2010 at 01:24 PM EDT #
I agree whole heartedly Mickey. There is nothing better, more beautiful, more satisfying that shoving the rock down the oppositions throat. There is no question in my mind that we have the perfect mix of RB's to carry the load this year. The question STILL remains, do we have the Offensive Line to carry the load. We haven't had a dominating OL since 06'. Let's hope we find the perfect mix of talent, toughness, and nastiness to make a difference up front this year. You win the line of scrimmage, you win the game. It really is that simple.
Posted by railtiger64 on July 06, 2010 at 06:03 PM EDT #
The problem I foresee is that opponents will load the box and stuff the run until one of our newbie QBs proves that Clemson has a credible passing attack. Auburn will probably start out putting about 25 guys in the box. :-)
I fear that running against UNC will be like running against Alabama in 2008, so I hope Napier has a big bag of tricks ready.
Posted by Razzmatazz on July 06, 2010 at 06:59 PM EDT #
You're right, Razz. Good point! I heard Pete Carroll say that "the running game is only as effective as the passing game will allow it to be." I think that's pretty fair.
Posted by RU4GOD2 on July 06, 2010 at 08:57 PM EDT #
We can only hope that Boyd has taken KP gone to baseball seriously. And the QB job and this team as his to lose. Hopefully he is doing everything he must do getting his self ready to be the leader of our Clemson Tigers.
Posted by tigercrazynut on July 07, 2010 at 08:19 AM EDT #
Coach Ford never dazzled folks with a lot of fancy plays. He ran a play til it was stopped, and then he ran another until it was stopped, mixing it up a little to keep honesty, but I think he only put in 12 or so plays per game. Toughness and commitment to whip the guy in front of you win games. I hope we show it this year, and I think we will.
Posted by Dugatiger on July 07, 2010 at 08:30 AM EDT #
Running to set up the pass is an outmoded idea. I watch games every week from high school to the pros where teams are pass-first and run with great success. Yes, you can do a run-first offense, but it doesn't have to be that way. I think one of the bigger keys is your formation. When you stack the box (even in short yardage situations) your likelihood of success is lessened because you have more defenders in the box. I think the general philosophy of running out of passing formations and vice versa works much better long term.
Posted by Tigerpimp77 on July 08, 2010 at 09:33 AM EDT #