Wednesday June 10, 2009

What Will The Offense Look Like?

What Will The Offense Look Like?
Since I bought Phil Steele’s preview magazine Monday, I have had my nose in it and have been gathering facts. One of the things I have noticed was the validation of claims that the new clock system cut down on the number of plays each team runs.

Here is a look at the number of plays each ACC averaged in 2008:
Boston College 69
Duke 69
Wake Forest 68
Florida State 67
Virginia Tech 67
Virginia 65
Miami 65
Clemson 64
NC State 64
Maryland 64
Georgia Tech 62
North Carolina 60

These stats indicate the average number of plays are down compared to previous years. The running of the clock has had the obvious effect that less time means less plays. There are factors in the number of plays run per team as well. Passing teams usually run more plays than running teams. Teams with better defenses usually have more plays, etc. But it seems that 65 plays per game is about what each team expects to run.

Here is a look at the average number of rushing attempts and passing attempts for each school last season:
Georgia Tech 49 rushing 13 passing
Virginia Tech 46 rushing 21 passing
Wake Forest 40 rushing 28 passing
Florida State 37 rushing 30 passing
Boston College 37 rushing 32 passing
North Carolina 35 rushing 25 passing
Duke 35 rushing 34 passing
NC State 34 rushing 30 passing
Clemson 33 rushing 31 passing
Maryland 33 rushing 31 passing
Miami 33 rushing 32 passing
Virginia 28 rushing 37 passing

These numbers show us some interesting things. First, Georgia Tech’s new scheme resulted in a big difference in the average number of runs compared to passes. Personnel usually changes game plans. For example, Virginia Tech had a good defense and a talented running back so they averaged 46 rushes per game.

Here is a breakdown of each school’s percentage of rushes and passes:
Georgia Tech 79% rush 21% pass
Virginia Tech 69% rush 31% pass
North Carolina 58% rush 42% pass
Wake Forest 58% rush 42% pass
Florida State 55% rush 45% pass
Boston College 53% rush 47% pass
NC State 53% rush 47% pass
Clemson 51% rush 49% pass
Maryland 51% pass 49% rush
Miami 51% rush 49% pass
Duke 51% rush 49% pass
Virginia 43% rush 57% pass

The percentages tell us some things as well. Again Georgia Tech doesn’t throw it much no matter what the score and teams that are trailing ate usually throw it more. It also appears that teams that run the ball at a higher percentage have better winning percentages in many cases.

Clemson 2009
In looking at the above data, it is safe to assume Clemson will run about 65 plays per game. If you could draw up the perfect scenario for the Tigers’ offense in 2009, what would it look like?

In a perfect world, here is what I would love to see:

*Clemson would average 40 rushing plays and 25 passing plays in 2009.

*The 40 Clemson rushing plays would be divided up with C.J. Spiller (17 rushes per game), Jamie Harper (12 carries per game), Andre Ellington (5 carries per game), the remaining six carries per game divided among Rendrick Taylor, Chad Diehl, Jacoby Ford and the quarterbacks.

*The Tigers would average 25 passing attempts per game and complete an average of 17 passes per game. Those receptions would be divided up with Jacoby Ford (7 catches per game), C.J. Spiller (4 catches per game), tight ends (2 catches per game) and the remaining four receptions per game going to the rest of the wide receivers.

*I would like to see the Tigers average 175 yards per game rushing per game this season. Only once in the past seven seasons has Clemson rushed the ball for that total (2006- 218.6 yards rushing per game).

*I would like to see Clemson average 225 yards passing per game this season. Four times in the last seven years the offense has averaged at least 225 through the air.

Defense wins championships and the special teams are very important but I wanted to look at some offensive projections today. We don’t know who the quarterback will be this season but I would expect an improvement in quarterback play this season. Last year the starter threw 13 touchdowns and 14 picks. That number will have to improve this season.

Last season Clemson was minus one in the turnover department and that number will have to improve in 2009 as well.

However, the stat that will have to see significant improvement in 2009 is the rushing averages. Last season Clemson averaged 112 yards per game. The Tigers ranked 10th in the league in rushing yards (ahead of only Duke and Virginia). This has to change in 2009.

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Prayer List
We have started a prayer list on the blog. Here are the guidelines:
*If you are offended by prayer or prayer lists then I apologize in advance. The blog is free and the prayer list will be on the bottom of the page so you don’t have to read it.
*If you would like to add someone to the list please e-mail me at mickeyplyler@hotmail.com
*If you want the reason for the prayer to be added to the name please specify in your e-mails.
*Please let me know when it is appropriate to take the person off of the prayer list

Those who need our prayers include:
Finn Brookover, Mrs. Kathleen Bowers, Larry in Naples, FL, RTG-Pawsitive Tiger, Mary-Louise Pawlowski (John's daughter), Jo Ann Bachman, Frank Taylor, Kenneth Bryant, Pruitt Martin, Got igers and his family, David Rowland, Leonard Gillespie and his family, Jim S, Christine Hepfer, Daniel Rosborough, Amy Murphey, Jack Huffman, Nancy Winkler, Dr. Nancy Strom Morgan, John Reeve, Eileen Woodrum, Ethel Southard, Vinnie Brock, Jean-Pierre Bailey, Kaitlyn L, William Perry, Delores Weaver, Eric Boessneck, John Bowers, Jimmy Ness.