Monday May 11, 2009

40? No. Host? Maybe.

40? No. Host? Maybe
Sunday’s disappointing loss to UNC-Wilmington assured Clemson that it can now not win 40 regular season games.

But that was the only answer that was provided in terms of the Tigers’ future. Now there are more questions than answers when it comes to hosting an NCAA regional.

The NCAA will announce the eight national seeds and the 16 host sites in the next two weeks. Clemson does not have a chance at one of the top eight national seeds but still have a shot at hosting a regional.

I think we will see eight of the 16 hosting sites going to teams in the southeast and the other half of the field goes to the rest of the nation. The ACC is a little stronger in terms of RPI but my guess would be the ACC and SEC get four host sites each.

The Tigers are eighth in the RPI ranking according to warrennolan.com. Their strength of schedule is fourth. Both of numbers are very positive signs for Clemson hosting but I am not convinced because other factors hurt the Tigers chances.

North Carolina and Georgia Tech are ranked one and two in the warrennolan.com RPI. My guess is that both of those schools are locks to host. That leaves four schools for the final two spots. Florida State has the league’s best record and has been extremely hot as of late. The Seminoles are 13th in the RPI and 24th in strength of schedule but their record is strong and they have played the best of any ACC team in recent weeks. Therefore, I think FSU gets the nod for the third regional.

That leaves Clemson, Virginia and Miami for the final ACC host site. Again Clemson is eighth in RPI and fourth in strength of schedule. Virginia is sixth on RPI and 35 in strength of schedule. Miami is 12th in RPI but does have the number-one schedule in the country at this point.

Between those three schools head-to-head should be a factor. Clemson beat Miami two out of three in Clemson. Miami took two of three at Virginia. Clemson and Virginia do not play each other in the regular season this year.

The conference records are very similar between all three schools. Virginia is 15-9-1, Clemson is 16-11 and Miami is 15-12.

Virginia has not been swept this season and only swept Wake Forest. They had series wins against Boston College, Maryland, NC State and Wake Forest. They suffered series losses to Miami at home and at North Carolina. The other factors when looking at Virginia is the fact they had two rain outs against Florida State and they had a series tie (1-1-1) with Georgia Tech.

Clemson also swept Wake Forest and has not been swept this season. The Tigers have series wins against Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland and Miami. They suffered series losses at Florida State, at North Carolina and at Virginia Tech.

The Hurricanes swept NC State but were swept by North Carolina. They won series with Boston College, Duke, Florida State, Virginia and Virginia Tech. They lost series at Clemson, at North Carolina and at home against Georgia Tech.

If North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida State have wrapped up host sites and if the ACC only gets four sites, my guess is the race is too close to call for the final spot. My guess is the final weekend series and the ACC tournament may determine the final ACC site. All three teams are on the road for the final weekend and will play inferior teams. Virginia visits Virginia Tech, Miami goes to Wake Forest and Clemson visits NC State.

Another scenario would favor the Tigers. With the ACC ranked in front of the SEC in terms of RPI, maybe the ACC gets five host sites while the SEC gets three.

Florida is the highest RPI team in the SEC with the number seven spot. The Gators strength of schedule is fifth. LSU is 11th in terms of RPI and 28th in terms of strength of schedule. After those two SEC teams, I think others still have work to do.

Arkansas is 16th in the RPI with the nation’s 11th most difficult schedule. Ole Miss is 17th with the 37th most difficult schedule.

Georgia was a lock two weeks ago but the Dawgs have lost 10 of their last 12 and are now 20 in the RPI with the nation’s 31st most difficult schedule.

Alabama has played well as of late but is 24th in RPI and 48th in strength of schedule.

Boyd’s World is another college baseball RPI site and their rankings are similar. In the ACC they have Georgia Tech number two, North Carolina number four, Clemson seventh, Miami 10th, Virginia 11th and Florida State 14th.

In the SEC, Boyd’s World ranks Florida sixth, LSU 13th, Arkansas 16th, Georgia 17th, Ole Miss 18th and Alabama 28th.

If you just look at the RPI it is clear the ACC deserves more sites than the SEC. However, history shows the SEC will get respect.

In 2008, Miami, North Carolina, NC State and FSU hosted from the ACC. LSU and Georgia were the only SEC schools to host. ACC 4, SEC 2.

In 2007, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida State hosted in the ACC. South Carolina, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt hosted in the SEC. ACC 3, SEC 4.

In 2006, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia hosted. In the SEC, Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky and Alabama hosted in the SEC. ACC 4, SEC 5.

In 2005, the ACC schools that hosted were Clemson, Miami, FSU and Georgia Tech. The SEC that hosted were Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU. ACC 4, SEC 4.

In 2004, the ACC schools that hosted regionals were Georgia Tech, Virginia and FSU. The SEC hosts were South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss. ACC 3, SEC 5.

In 2003, the ACC schools were FSU, NC State and Georgia Tech. The SEC schools were Auburn, Mississippi State and LSU. ACC 3, SEC 3.

My guess is Clemson is not in yet as a host but can play itself in with the remaining five regular season games and next week’s ACC tournament. The Tigers need to do some scoreboard watching over the next two weeks with Virginia, Miami, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama and a few others.

The Brad Hughes All-State Insurance Agency

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Those who need our prayers include:
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