Monday October 06, 2008

What Are Realistic Expectations?

What Are Realistic Expectations?
I had a caller on my radio show this morning that tried to say Clemson’s expectations are too high. The caller was a Georgia fan and said Clemson is a small school in a small state and the fans expectations are too high.

So what should Clemson fans expect?

Let’s look at the competition in the ACC:

The Atlantic Division
Florida State-The Seminoles are down at the current time and actually have been for a few years now. Florida State had zero tradition until the late 1970s or early 1980s but they really had it going then. The economy in Florida is awful and some factors are against the Seminoles but the facilities are fantastic. FSU has branded itself well and have a great recruiting base. In the end FSU has the most potential of any team on the Atlantic Division.

NC State-Facilities are very good at NC State and they have some tradition there. The recruiting base is good also. Fans at NC State actually care about football too. I think it is reasonable for Wolfpack fans to expect a division title at least once per decade or so.

Maryland-The Terps have a decent tradition. Their facilities are not as good as NC State and the fan base is a little less interested than NC State’s. Maryland fans are still a little more basketball based but the football recruiting base is geographic and demographic advantage. Maryland is in a major metropolitan area and lose the battle with the Redskins and other DC/Baltimore teams from an interest standpoint but the fans do pay attention at times.

Boston College-The population base is good but for the most part I have found this fan base to be in indifferent. The facilities are average and the tradition is about average as well. I think BC is slightly behind Maryland because the fan base in New England is still more about the Red Sox, Celtics, Patriots and Bruins. This is a pro sports town and the competition drowns out BC athletics. I imagine some Boston area sports fans had to be told that BC won the Atlantic Division of the ACC last season.

Wake Forest-This entire program is based upon Jim Grobe and his current success. The Deacs had nothing before him and I am not sure they will have anything left after him. The facilities are adequate but they have won the conference in the past two years and still have a hard time creating local interest. The size of the school is a major disadvantage that is difficult to overcome.

Clemson-We are a small school in a small state. But football is important here and that is clear when looking at facilities and support. Clemson is in the top four of the ACC in terms of history, tradition, facilities and fan support.

The Coastal Division
Miami-The Canes have won five national titles but no one seems to care in South Florida. I guess there are too many things to do in the area and the local alumni base is too small. Miami has a difficult time competing against the Dolphins but this is not a sports town. The Marlins won two World Series titles and still can’t draw. People just don’t care. However, there is still too many good athletes in Dade and Brower Counties for this not to be a football power house.

Virginia Tech-The Hokies are a lot like FSU and Wake Forest in that their entire football tradition has happened under one coach. Something tells me FSU will rebound after Bobby Bowden retires. Something tells me Wake Forest will not after Grobe moves on. I think Virginia Tech will be a power long after Beamer, mainly because of the roots beamer has laid. The foundation is solid because Virginia Tech people care about the sport. The facilities are good and the recruiting base is solid as well.

North Carolina-This is a basketball school. Always has been. Always will be. However, the facilities are nice and the recruiting base is solid. North Carolina should expect to compete and traditionally have don OK but not recently.

Georgia Tech-Few programs have Tech’s long-term traditions. However, I have found the people of Atlanta arte indifferent to Georgia Tech football the last 15 years. The recruiting base is very good and the facilities are good. Tech has a lot of advantages but have a hard time playing second fiddle in the Peach State.

Virginia-The Cavs have very little history and tradition. They do have a lot of money and this have excellent facilities. Their recruiting base is solid as well. However, I think Virginia’s “Give A Damn” about football is broken. I just don’t see it being a huge priority in Charlottesville like it is in Blacksburg.

Duke-David Cutcliffe has done a good job early in showing some of Duke’s potential but the lack of support, facilities and tradition is too much to overcome.

Clemson last won the ACC in 1991. Since then FSU came in the league and won it 12 times. Virginia Tech ahs two ACC titles since 2004. Since Clemson last won the league Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland have either won the league or shared the title.

I would say expectations should look like this in each division:
Atlantic Division
1. FSU-Should expect to win the division at least 4-5 times every ten years.
2. Clemson-Should expect to win the division at least 2 to 3 times every ten years.
3. NC State- Should expect to win the division at least once every ten years.
4. Maryland- Should expect to win the division at least once every ten years.
5. Boston College- Should expect to win the division at least once every ten years.
6. Wake Forest- Should not have expectations to win the division but instead be pleasantly surprised when they do win it.

Coastal Division
1. Miami- Should expect to win the division at least 3 times every ten years.
2. Virginia Tech- Should expect to win the division at least 2-3 times every ten years.
3. North Carolina- Should expect to win the division at least 2 times every ten years.
4. Georgia Tech- Should expect to win the division at least 1-2 times every ten years.
5. Virginia- Should expect to win the division at least once every ten years.
6. Duke- Should not have expectations to win the division but instead be pleasantly surprised when they do win it.

The Atlantic Coast Conference changed with Florida State entering the league in 1992 and again in the last four years with the addition of Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College. It is more difficult to win the conference now and the division titles are important. However, Clemson’s expectations in football should be higher than the rest of the league with the exception of the football schools like Miami, FSU and Virginia Tech.

I don’t think it is unreasonable for Clemson fans to expect Atlantic Division and ACC championships every so often. Clemson might not be a national power but I am not sure Tiger football fans expectations are that unrealistic.

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