Thursday October 18, 2007

Offense vs. Defense

Offense vs. Defense
Winning and losing changes our outlook and many times gives us a different perception. In today’s blog I want to get into the numbers and stats to see how much reality is in our perception of the 2007 season.

I think many fans have the perception that Clemson’s defense is very good but the offense is awful. While I won’t totally disagree with that concept, I do want to look at several criteria before I am ready to jump in that boat.

First let’s add expectations to the list as well. In the summer, I ranked each position in the ACC and had the Clemson offense in better than sixth in the league in only one of the five position categories. I had the Tigers’ running back first in the league but the quarterbacks I rated seventh, wide receivers sixth, offensive line eight and tight ends I had ninth in the ACC.

Obviously, the running backs have not performed as the league’s best unit but the tight ends and wide receivers may ranked higher and the quarterback play may also be higher than expected. The offensive line is about right and maybe lower than eighth but certainly not any higher. Therefore from a talent standpoint, my expectations were for this offense to be about in the middle of the road in the conference based upon talent. Now some can reasonably argue the play-calling and coaching and they might not too much of an argument from me but the overall expectations for this offense was in the lower half of the league.

In our blog we ranked Clemson’s defense much higher across the board this summer. We had the Tigers fourth along the defensive line, third at linebacker and third in the secondary. We thought Clemson was more experienced and more talented on the defensive side of the ball and should be expected to have one of the top defenses in the league. So far that assumption has proved to be correct.

Please note that the special teams rankings are not taken into account in this blog because I think it is obvious this team is as bad as anyone in the league on special teams so I assume there is no debate in this area.

However, statistics tell us that Clemson’s offense has faced much stiffer competition than the Tigers’ defense especially to date therefore talent is not the only factor for defense being more successful.

In fact Central Michigan may be the best offense the Tigers will have played so far and only Boston College has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball of the remaining opponents the remainder of the season.

One could also go as far to say that most of the offenses the Tigers have faced this season have been anemic. I would say Virginia Tech, Florida State, NC State and Georgia Tech are awful on offense. Consider:

*Clemson has not faced an offense ranked in the top 70 in the country in terms of total offense so far this season. Georgia Tech is ranked 73rd in total offense and they are the top-ranked offense Clemson has faced. Louisiana-Monroe is ranked 75th, Florida State is ranked 93rd, NC State is 105th and Virginia Tech is 112th in terms of total offense. These are division I-A rankings so Furman is not included.

*Clemson has not faced a top 50 passing team so far this season. FSU is ranked 55th in passing while NC State is 70th, Virginia Tech is 100th, Georgia tech is 108th and Monroe is 112th. This contributes to Clemson being the top rated passing defense in the league.

*The Tigers have not exactly faced Tommy Frazier’s Nebraska offense on the ground either. Monroe is 16th and Georgia Tech is 17th in the nation in rushing but Virginia Tech is 94th, FSU is 102nd, NC State is 106th.

Meanwhile the Clemson offense has faced much better defenses so far. Consider:

*Three of the Tigers five D I-A opponents are ranked in the top 25 in total defense. Georgia Tech is 13th, Virginia Tech is 16th and FSU is 24th. NC State is ranked 83rd and Monroe is 103rd in total defense.

*The Tigers have already faced three of the top 20 rushing defenses with Georgia Tech ranked 12th, Virginia Tech 18th and FSU 19th.

*Central Michigan will be the highest rated total offense (34th) and passing offense (37th) team Clemson has faced this season.

The Tigers will face a great offense in the future in Boston College who is ranked 10th in the country in passing and 20th in total offense but I don’t think they will be too worried about others when you consider:

*South Carolina is 88th in total offense, Wake Forest is 89th, Maryland is 90th and Duke is 111th.

*In terms of passing offenses Duke is 56th, South Carolina is 66th, Wake Forest is 84th and Maryland is 95th.

*The rushing attacks of future opponents are not much better with Maryland ranked 52nd, Wake Forest 70th, Boston College 71st, South Carolina 86th and Duke 116th.

In summary, Clemson’s offense has not been as productive as the defense for a couple of reasons. First, the Tigers are more talented and more experienced on the defensive side of the ball but I think it is fair to point out that the offense faces much stiffer competition than the defense has and the national statistics seem to indicate that.

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