Thursday October 11, 2007

Can You Afford It?

Can You Afford It?
This week I have corresponded to many Clemson fans and to no one’s surprise all were upset about the game on Saturday night. I visit internet sites and can see the upset fans after almost every loss for almost every team on the country. I can’t remember a Clemson loss in the last five or so years where some Tiger fans were so disgruntled some called for Bowden to be fired. But in almost every one of the previous losses I could find Bowden supporters in the past but this week is different.

Personally I have not spoken with one person who was back in Bowden’s camp. I am not surprised at the venom but I was surprised at the lack of support on any level for the current head coach.

Most of the phone calls, e-mails and conversations I have had with Tiger supporters have centered around Bowden’s replacement as opposed to the team turning around its season. Most have already conceded that Bowden will not be back in 2008 and have moved on to candidates.

My responses have centered on a few topics:
*First, if we have learned anything it is that you can never count Bowden out. He has come back from bad situations before and this year he could win out and save his job again. While he lost many fans on Saturday, his fate will not be decided at this point. Terry Don Phillips has said he will wait until the end of the year to make his evaluation and that is fair. Bowden has the same opportunity to win back many fans with more wins in the second half of the year.

*Bowden’s biggest hurdle at this point is the seat equity plan unveiled by IPTAY in August. I believe the stadium will be close to full for homecoming against Central Michigan and for the final two home games against Wake Forest and a highly ranked Boston College team. I also believe attendance would not be terrible early next year under the old plan but the new revenue-generating IPTAY Seat Equity Plan is asking for more money from many donors. I am not sure Bowden would excite many donors to dig a little deeper in their pockets next season. Again, I could be wrong and maybe this team can have some huge wins and still win the ACC in 2007 but at this point that does not seem likely. Many have expressed to me that they would not be excited about having to dish out more for the same outlook going into Bowden’s 10th season. I think some in IPTAY would cringe at the idea of trying to spread a positive message if Clemson did not win the Atlantic Division or lost to USC in November.

A 10-2 regular season is a no-brainer in his favor. There is no way he is let go at 10-2. If he went 9-3 with a loss to South Carolina it would be tough but he would have his supporters. At 8-4 I believe he would have to beat South Carolina in one of those eight wins and even then some would not be satisfied. Any record of 7-5 or worse makes Phillips’ decision fairly easy.

*My other main point to those donors that already have their mind made up to go in another direction relates to the administration and the direction of the hire. I do not have total confidence that Clemson would do what it takes to take the program to a higher level if they made a switch.

Bowden is the 38th highest paid coach on college football at $1.19 million per year. He is the seventh highest paid coach in the ACC. Is Clemson ready to invest top dollar for a top name coach? North Carolina did.

I am not saying that I think a big name is the only guy that could win at Clemson if you made the move to oust Bowden but I am saying the IPTAY Seat Equity deal almost calls for that. Could Clemson send out ticket applications and expect huge results if Navy’s Paul Johnson is hired? Don’t get me wrong, Johnson is a fantastic coach but is he enough to get the masses excited when they order the tickets?

There are a limited number of guys that could sell this Seat Equity Plan. It would take a Rich Rodriguez-type hire. The former Clemson offensive coordinator turned down Alabama so would he come to Clemson? If he would how much will it cost? His WVU buyout is reportedly $1.5 million. Bowden’s buyout is $2.5 million. Is Clemson going to invest $4 million in buyouts? Also Rodriguez would probably demand in the range of $2 million if he did listen to an offer. Is this administration serious enough about football to invest $2 million a year into a head coach? You can bet that a new coach will ask for more than five years so would this Clemson administration be winning to go eight or so years in a contract?

I heard Tommy Tuberville’s name the other day. He makes $2.2 million at Auburn. Would Clemson be willing to top that figure? I heard Bobby Petrino’s name but he makes $24 million over five years with the Falcons. Think he would move for a lot less money considering his Louisville contract was 10 years and $25 million?

If the administration decided to hire an assistant coach from Bowden’s staff or any staff in the country do you think that would sell tickets in the new Seat Equity Plan?

Alabama found out last year that the PR of a coaching hire can be bad. They were turned down by several candidates including Nick Saban before he changed his mind. Can Clemson afford to get turned down publically by multiple candidates? Where would Bama have headed if Saban did not come back to their offer of $3.5 million per year?

Speaking of money don’t forget about the multi-year contracts of some assistant coaches already on staff that would not be retained and the even bigger contracts of the new staff that would be coming in.

Another item to consider is the idea of jumping into the $2 million club. Once you go there then there is no turning back. Coaches’ salaries are only going to continue to increase in the future.

Again please remember that the season is not over and the best thing for the program is for Bowden to win out. But if he stumbles in the second half of the season two questions arise. Number 1-Can Clemson afford to fire Bowden and hire a great coach? Number 2-Can Clemson afford to not fire Bowden?

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