Thursday February 01, 2007

ACC Tournament Outlook

ACC Tournament Outlook
If you really want to look at how far Oliver Purnell has brought the Clemson basketball team this blog ought to give you a pretty good indication.

Are you sitting down? I have started to look at seedings for the ACC tournament for men's basketball even though the calendar says February 1.

I know some will cringe at the thought and call this "February Madness." However, I think we can at least start to consider the ramifications of the seedings for two reasons. First, the new format of the ACC tournament and second, the idea of facing the Tar Heels.

Clemson has not been successful in the ACC tournament. The Tigers have never won one and lately have been involved in the play-in games more times than not. But alast the play-in game is now gone. The new format does not allow for the 8th and 9th seeds to duke it out only to have to play Duke the following day at noon. The new format allows all 12 teams to compete but the top four teams in the league get a first round bye and make no mistake about it that is huge. I cannot see a scenario where any team can win four games in four days with one most likely having to be against North Carolina.

Therefore securing a first-round bye is a huge deal. Currently Clemson is tied for sixth with FSU at 4-4 in the conference. North Carolina will win the regular season and will be the number-one seed so the rest of the league is fighting for position. Virginia Tech dropped a stunner last night when they lost at home to lowly NC State. It was the Hokies second loss which ties them in the loss column with Boston College, Duke and Virginia.

Lets examine each of those contenders who have only two league losses. Virginia Tech is now 6-2 in the league with wins over Wake Forest, North Carolina and Maryland at home and wins at Miami, Georgia Tech and Duke. Their two losses were to NC State at home and at FSU. The second half of the season features home games against Virginia, Boston College, Miami and Clemson and road contests at Boston College, North Carolina, NC State and Virginia. I think the Hokies have a fairly easy road to a top four seed in the regular season.

Boston College is not the same team after the suspension of Sean Williams. They are 6-2 also with wins over Maryland, Virginia, Florida State and Miami and road wins at NC State and Wake Forest. The rest of the schedule includes games at home against Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina and Clemson and road games at Miami, FSU, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. I am not so sure that the Eagles have the talent to win the 10 games it may require to get a top four seed.

Duke is 5-2 in the league with wins over Wake Forest, Clemson and Boston College in Cameron and at NC State and Miami. The rest of their schedule includes home tilts with FSU, UNC, Georgia Tech and Maryland. They have to travel to Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Boston College. I think Duke can get to 10-6 but I am not sure. They would be a bubble top four seed at this point.

Virginia is the surprise of the league. Their 5-2 mark includes wins at home over NC State, Maryland and Wake Forest and road wins over Clemson and NC State. Their remaining schedule includes home games with Duke, Miami, FSU, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech and road games against Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami and Wake Forest. The key games here would be the ones on the road. If UVA can win on the road they will be a top four seed.

Clemson and FSU are both 4-4 in the league and in my opinion the only two remaining teams that have a chance at reaching the top four status. The Seminoles have only three home ACC games left with Boston College, Georgia Tech and NC State coming to Tallahassee. They have to go on the road with games at Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Miami. This is a tough way to try to make up ground in this league. FSU would have to sweep the home games and win three of five on the road to get to 10-6 and that will not happen.

The Tigers have an easier second half than they did in the first half of the season. Home games with FSU, Maryland, Duke and Miami look winnable. The road games at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Boston College look manageable. Only the season ending game in Blacksburg looks like an extreme uphill battle.

If the Tigers cannot get in the top four then number five is not a bargain either. The fifth seed plays the 12th seed in round one and then faces the fourth seed who has a bye in the second round. If you made it past those first two days then you get top-seeded UNC. Therefore a sixth or seventh seed is better than a five seed in my opinion.

Actually there is not a lot of difference in the two and three seeds because they could face each other in the semi-finals but a four seed would most likely face the Tar Heels in the semis. Therefore there is a huge difference in a three and four seed.

I know it is only the first day of February but you have to admit that it is fun to start looking a little ahead with this team and the tournament...it sure beats the play-in game.

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