Thursday September 10, 2009

Ga. Tech Prediction by Rev O

One down and eleven more to go. I missed the point spread by 1 in the MTSU prediction. With respect to the predicted score, I guess I forgot to include a touchdown run by Spiller on the opening kickoff and a botched attempted throw by Willy Korn returned for a touchdown by MTSU. Hey, come on, it's the spread that really counts. I loved the FB/RB tandom of Chad Diehl and Rendrick Taylor. That was over 500 lbs of flesh pounding it inside. The Clemson vs Ga Tech series has been the most competitive series in the ACC over the past 13 years. Ten of those games have been decided by 5 points or less including six games in a row from 1996-2001 that were decided by 3 points. GT has won 4 of the last 5 games. Clemson has not played well in Atlanta. This one is going to be hard to predict. Last year Clemson's defense did a good job limiting the GT offense to 207 yds on the ground. That was well below GT's average so why should it be any different this year? Let there be no doubt - Paul Johnson has done a great job executing the triple option and they will gain yards on the ground against a very good Clemson defense but I believe the Clemson defense is better than last year's defense while the GT defense will not be as good against the run as they were last year. The Clemson defensive line needs to play hard and stuff the run up the middle making the GT offense go outside where Clemson's speed will prevail. I think Clemson can do this. In the meantime, the Clemson offense needs to control the line of scrimmage so a run game can be established. Last year Clemson was held to 51 yards rushing on 24 carries. An embarrassing 2.12 yds per rush.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Slight Advantage to Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 31st in the nation. GT Scoring Defense is 52nd in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 62nd in the nation. GT Total Defense is 45th in the nation.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 36th in the nation. GT Rushing Defense is 49th in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 84th in the nation. GT Pass Defense is 57th in the nation.

Clemson's offense gained confidence last game. Kyle Parker did well in his debut and his rifle of an arm was impressive. He moved well in the pocket and had some good runs out of the pocket. His passing numbers would have been much better if Jacoby Ford (3 drops) and Xavier Dye (1 drop) had caught the ball better. The receiving corps needs to do better. Looks like we might see redshirt sophmore Brandon Clear alternating with Dye this week. Jamie Harper and Andre Ellington saw some good playing time in the second half due to a minor hamstring muscle pull by CJ Spiller. He was pulled from the MTSU game only as a precautionary measure. I think that was a good move. He'll need his legs for this game. Spiller has been practicing this week and is ready to go. I see Clemson moving the ball better against GT this year than last. Jacksonville State was able to gain 121 yards on the ground averaging 3 yds per carry and 193 yards through the air on 23 receptions out of 38 attempts. I think this bodes well for Clemson's ability to do better than they did last year against the GT defense and here is the reason why I think Clemson will prevail in the running game - GT lost some key players on the defensive line. Gone to the NFL are three out of four starters on the defensive front (Michael Johnson (DE), Vance Walker (DT) and Darryl Richard (DT). That's huge in my opinion. If we need to pound it inside some then we always have Chad Diehl and Rendrick Taylor. I enjoyed watching that combo last Saturday.

When GT has the ball: Advantage: Even

GT Scoring Offense is 31st in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 44th in the nation.
GT Total Offense is 23rd in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 47th in the nation.
GT Rushing Offense is 8th in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 45th in the nation.
GT Passing Offense is 82nd in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 64th in the nation.

Clemson had 3 sacks and 3 interceptions last game. It doesn't matter who it was against. The defense played aggressive and the result was positive. A good start to the year. Clemson actually played a dime package to help defend against the pass last week. Only one LB was used which meant Kavell Conner, the teams leading tackler, did not play a defensive down. Look for them to put the linebackers back in the game to defend against the GT option oriented offense. This game will be a game of discipline for the Clemson defense. It's the only way to defend against the triple option. The linebackers need to key on the dive up the middle while the DE covers the QB. The CBs will need to come up quickly for the pitch man. Once again, the speed of the defense will be key. If the defensive tackles can get some penetration this will further disrupt the triple option. The Clemson defensive front to include the DEs is one of the best ones in years and I think it will be tough for the GT offense to run inside on them. Push them outside and GT will have to contend with Sapp and Bowers along with the quick defensive backs. At the same time, the Clemson defensive backfield will need to keep an eye on Demaryius Thomas, a 6-3, 229-pound WR with ball skills and speed. They throw to him most of the time. It was a Nesbitt to Thomas 24-yard touchdown pass that was the difference in Clemson's 21-17 loss to Tech last season, after the Tigers held up reasonably well against the option, holding the Yellow Jackets to 3.9 yards per carry.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Spiller and Ford will continue to wreak havoc on Special Teams. That is if GT decides to kick to them. Paul Johnson says they will but will they really……?

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

Bobby Dodd Stadium is not a hard stadium to play in. GT has won 4 of the last 5 games. It's time for Clemson to win again.

Prediction: The bookies have GT as 5.5 pt favorites. I think Tech is overrated. Once again I'm going against the experts and being optimistic:

Clemson 24 GT 17

Go Tigers!!

Rev O