Saturday December 26, 2009

Bowl Prediction by Rev O.

I'm sitting here in Knoxville, TN en-route to Nashville for the Music City Bowl and figured I needed to get this out instead of gaffing it off. I know how much my followers depend upon my top notch predictions - NOT! Well, here goes. The Tigers have disappointed a little the last two games of the season. The offense has done well while the strength of the team, the defense, has let the opposing team score more than the average amount of points. The defense will have their hands full with the Wildcats of Kentucky who play a tough schedule in the SEC. The strength of the SEC is in controlling the offensive line while playing good smash mouth football. They have a good rushing offense and a poor passing game. On the flip side of the line, their defense has had a tough time stopping the SEC rushing game. Clemson should try and take advantage of the poor rushing defense and expect Spiller to lead that charge. He's had time to rest his foot and heal the wounds of a 12 game season. Kentucky finished the season at 7-5 but 4 of their 5 losses came at the hands of very good teams (Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and USC) so this will be no cake walk. Both teams have a lot of talent that will need to be neutralized in order to win the game.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Even

Clemson Scoring Offense is 24th in the nation. KY Scoring Defense is 44th in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 69th in the nation. KY Total Defense is 59th in the nation.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 44th in the nation. KY Rushing Defense is 100th in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 86th in the nation. KY Pass Defense is 18th in the nation.

It would appear that Clemson's strength in this game would be the run since KY is 100th in the nation in defending against the run but think of who they have had to defend against. The SEC is a run oriented conference and four of the top 15 rushing offenses in the nation are SEC teams that KY had to play to include Florida and Alabama. This KY team is tough so don't let the numbers fool you. LB Micah Johnson was a second team SEC performer along with CB Trevard Lindly. The Clemson offense needs to have a good game and control the line of scrimmage if they are going to win this game. Clemson's offense continues to play well and is putting the points on the scoreboard. I expect to see them do this again especially with a rested and healed CJ Spiller. Look for him to handle the ball a lot in his final game in a Tiger uniform and I don't think he will disappoint. Kyle Parker has matured a lot since his first start and has been named as a freshman All American so his efforts have caught the attention of some experts. I don't see Dabo doing anything different for this game. He'll hand the ball to Spiller with Ellington playing a big back-up role. Harper will get a few rushes but I think Ellington has secured the primary back up job. Of course Parker will pass when required and Jacoby Ford will be his primary target. Nothing new here. Dye will be the #2 receiver for Parker.

When KY has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

KY Scoring Offense is 63rd in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 26th in the nation.
KY Total Offense is 90th in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 22nd in the nation.
KY Rushing Offense is 21st in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 69th in the nation.
KY Passing Offense is 114th in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 11th in the nation.

The Kentucky offense is led by WR/QB/Kick Returner Randall Cobb. He does it all for the Wildcats. They like to run out of the wildcat formation as much as any team in the country. Cobb leads the team in pass receiving with 37 catches for 427 yards and four touchdowns. As QB out of the wildcat formation he has rushed for 537 yards and 10 TDs. He's also averaging 13.5 yards on punt returns and 26.5 yards on kickoff returns. averaging Clemson will need to stop Cobb just like Kentucky will need to stop Spiller. Kentucky lost their starting Qb, Mike Hartline, in the middle of the season but freshman back-up Morgan Newton has done a good job of filling in. Good enough to be named to the SEC All Freshman Team by the Sporting News. Hartline practiced this past week and could come in if needed. He is the better passer of the two. The Clemson defense needs to put on a show better than they have in the past several games. This is Ricky Sapp's last game as a Tiger (as well as Butler, Alexander, Chancellor). Let's hope they all go out in style.

Special Teams: Advantage: Even

In addition to Cobb pulling return duties, Derrick Locke does even better at kick returns leading the SEC with a 29.6 yard average. Clemson does defend the return game better than Kentucky. Spiller and Ford should make a difference here.

Intangibles: Advantage: Kentucky

As with the previous time Clemson played Kentucky in Nashville, the Wildcats will out number Clemson fans 3 to 1. Will Dabo have these kids ready to play football after getting relegated to a lower tier bowl?? I've gotta think Kentucky will be more up for this game than Clemson.

Prediction: The bookies have Clemson by 7 pts. I think they might have this one right.

Clemson 34 KY 27

Go Tigers!!

Rev O