Wednesday November 25, 2009

USC Prediction by Rev O

I know it's a little early for my prediction but on Thursday I'll be too stuffed with turkey to lift a finger. OK, now that you are believers, and I assume all of you have now completed the conversion, it's time for the annual rivalry. They say that rivalries are hard to predict but when the past 30 yrs have resulted in Clemson leading the series 21-8-1, well, it just takes a little guess work out of predicting who will win. In the last 12 years Clemson leads the series 10-2. Since their first meeting in 1896, Clemson has won almost twice as many games and leads the overall series 65-37-4. Clemson even leads in blood drive contributions that is held every year the week of the game 13-12 and remember, USC is almost twice as big as Clemson when it comes to student population. The USC defense is ranked 17th in the country and more specifically, their pass defense is # 7 in the nation but they have been playing SEC teams that run the ball. Of the eight SEC teams that USC has played, only one ranks in the top 50 in pass offense and they lost to them (Tennessee). It's no wonder they rank relatively high in pass defense. In comparison, the Clemson defense ranks 12th in the country and 12th in pass defense while beating four teams that rank in the top 30 in passing offense (FSU, MIA, NCSU and WF). When the Carolina rush defense has to defend against the run, well, they don't do quite as well, ranking 63rd against the run allowing 145 rushing yards per game. The Clemson offense has been on a role lately in rush offense and that bodes well for Clemson in this game.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Even

Clemson Scoring Offense is 19th in the nation. USC Scoring Defense is 28th in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 64th in the nation. USC Total Defense is 17th in the nation.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 46th in the nation. USC Rushing Defense is 63rd in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 80th in the nation. USC Pass Defense is 7th in the nation.

The Clemson offense continues to do well as does the offensive line. This group of five lineman have really come into their own this year and four of the five will be back next year. They only gave up one sack against Virginia. Spiller has become a marked man but when that happens, Jacoby Ford becomes the go to guy and that certainly worked well against Virginia. Ford torched Virginia with 6 catches for 106 yds and one TD. The TEs continue to be a part of the passing game while Ellington and Harper are effective when they fill in for Spiller every now and then. Look for Clemson to do a lot of the same. No reason to fix what's not broken. Aside from TCU, this will be the best rated defense that Clemson has played led by #40 LB Eric Norwood (6' 1", 252 lbs) and #83 DE Cliff Matthews (6' 4", 249 lbs) with 7 and 6 sacks respectively. But remember what I said above. I think this defense is a little overrated based on who they have played with respect to the passing game. Clemson has run the ball well and when they have had to pass it, they have done this well too. They have displayed a very balanced attack and Parker has been remarkable in the last 6 games completing 65% of his passes. This offense is firing on all cylinders and they should be ready to play against their "so-called" instate rivals.

When USC has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

USC Scoring Offense is 101st in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 20th in the nation.
USC Total Offense is 75th in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 12th in the nation.
USC Rushing Offense is 97th in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 41st in the nation.
USC Passing Offense is 40th in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 12th in the nation.

Although the Clemson defense has given up a few more points than I have predicted, they have 33 team sacks with Ricky Sapp leading the charge with only five. What does this mean? Well, it means that Clemson has a well balanced defense that can put pressure on the QB from almost any position. What does this mean for USC? Well USC has given up 33 sacks this year. Does this sound familiar? Virginia came into the Clemson game having given up 32 sacks and then gave up another seven against an aggressive Clemson defense. USC ranks 109th out of 120 in sacks allowed. As with the Virginia game, I think the Clemson defense will overwhelm the USC offensive and have Garcia running for his life. Clemson has done a great job of adjusting at halftime too so if they start a little slow they will adjust. I don't see this being an issue but watch for Spurrier to come up with some wacky plays. The rushing game is led by Kenny Miles averaging 44 yds/game. Not very impressive. They are much more of a passing team with Garcia averaging more than 247 yds/game but he's only completing 57% of his passes. His favorite receiver is Alshon Jeffrey averaging almost 61 yds/game but Garcia throws to a lot of receivers to include the TEs and RBs. Once again, the speed of the Clemson defense will show. You can't teach speed but you can teach someone with speed how to play good football and Steele has done this well. Bowers should be back 100% for this game. He played in a couple snaps against Viginia to get his confidence back so you can bet he'll be ready to play hard against the Coots.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

USC is 108th nationally defending the kickoff. Clemson is 29th in kickoff returns. Here lies the mismatch. My guess is that Spurrier is arrogant enough that he will kick to Spiller just to try and make a point unfortunately Spiller will make him pay at least once. USC has improved some as of late holding Kentucky's Derrick Locke and Arkansas' Dennis Johnson below their kickoff return averages. This is why Spurrier will kick to Spiller. He's gotten cocky (no pun intended).

Intangibles: Advantage: Even

This is an instate rivalry game. There is no home field advantage. Clemson actually plays well in Columbia and vice versa. Sure, most people think Spurrier is a better coach than Dabo but if he were that good then he would have done a better job at USC. Maybe it's not the coach. Maybe it's just some curse on USC. Poor Coots.

Prediction: Clemson is a 3 pt favorite and that's only because it's a rivalry game. This game has been a little more predictable than most rivalries and the better team usually wins. In this case, the better team is Clemson. I'll go with what my numbers say but my gut tells me it might be a little closer.

Clemson 27 USC 10

Go Tigers and have a Happy Thanksgiving!!

Rev O