Thursday October 15, 2009

Wake Forest Prediction by Rev O

OK, it's been a long 2 weeks of sulking. Turtle hunting went about as well as frog gigging. Now it's time to get over it and hope for better things to come. Hey, it can't get much worse can it? Actually it can. A loss to Wake Forest will just about eliminate the Tigers from ACC contention and yes, the Tigers are still in the fight. WF comes in with a 4-2 record. They beat a good NC State team but lost to a mediocre BC team. It's hard to gauge how good these Demon Deacons really are. Clemson, once again, has the better talent but as we have seen, that doesn't necessarily equate to a win. This one is going to be a tough game and if Clemson is going to win, it might be time for them to win the close one instead of doing what has come to be the realization of Clemson football, and that is losing the close one with consistency.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: WF

Clemson Scoring Offense is 11th in the ACC. WF Scoring Defense is 6th in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 10th in the ACC. WF Total Defense is 9th in the ACC.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 6th in the ACC. WF Rushing Defense is 3rd in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 8th in the ACC. WF Pass Defense is 10th in the ACC.

This is going to be the toughest rushing defense that Clemson has played against this season. The Tiger offense has been dismal as of late. If ever there were a time for the offense to come out of their shell (I think I'm still reeling a little from the turtle defeat), now is the time. Wake doesn't have a particularly power defense but they stuff the rush fairly well. They are giving up 361 yds of offense/game. 242 yds of that is coming through the air. Maybe that's good for Clemson but our passing game needs improvement. Clemson is only averaging 181 yds through the air. Even Virginia is doing better than that!! Parker needs to do a better job. He is completing less than 50% of his passes. I'll give him a little credit. A lot of those were dropped balls but the stat still remains - last in the ACC in Pass Efficiency. Once again we'll see Clemson try to establish the run. This will give them a feel of how good the WF rush defense really is. If they can stay multi-dimensional then a Tiger win is probable. The offense has rested for 2 weeks and should be healed and ready to go. Look for Spiller to move better (if it's possible for him to move any better!!) after resting his turf toe and Hairston to reclaim his good play at left tackle now that his sprained MCL has had time to heal.

When WF has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

WF Scoring Offense is 7th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 3rd in the ACC.
WF Total Offense is 2nd in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 3rd in the ACC.
WF Rushing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 6th in the ACC.
WF Passing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 2nd in the ACC.

Clemson's defense continues to do well in 3 of 4 categories above and pass defense will be important in this game. WF QB Riley Skinner ranks 2nd in the ACC in passing with 282 yds/game and threw for a career high 360 yds and 4 TDs in their big win over MD last week. Junior receiver Marshall Williams is Lewis' favorite target averaging 5.3 receptions/game which ranks 1st in the ACC and 3rd in yardage at 79 yds/game. Clemson's defense is allowing only 158 yds/game through the air. Sapp (2) and Bowers (3) have 5 of the 12 sacks for Clemson this year. The other 7 have come from 7 different individuals. The Clemson defense needs to keep the pressure on Skinner from all directions to minimize his pocket time. WF is 3rd in the ACC in rush offense but Clemson has actually done well in this category holding 4 of their 5 opponents to an average of 88 yds (GT was the exception). Without the GT game, they would be #2 in the ACC in rush defense so therefore the reason for a Clemson advantage when WF has the ball. Clemson needs to continue stuffing the run. This will be an interesting matchup.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Nothing has changed here. Spiller broke another return for a TD and most of it was without a shoe. Clemson continues to do very well in the return game and kickoff coverage.

Intangibles: Advantage: Even

The Clemson crowd is down a little. They need a "pick me up".

Prediction: The experts say Clemson by 7 pts. I guess they haven't given up on us yet!! I see it closer than that but I would be happy with a larger margin. Jackson needs to be on his game for this one to be successful.

Clemson 24 WF 21

Go Tigers!!

Rev O